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Forex market analysis

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February 2019

NZDUSD

The pair is trading above 0.6765. It may partially recover due to the weakness of USD. However, if the negative sentiment over the US economy’s growth returns to the market, the pair may resume its local fall.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, on the ...

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NZDUSD

The pair is trading above 0.6765. It may partially recover due to the weakness of USD. However, if the negative sentiment over the US economy’s growth returns to the market, the pair may resume its local fall.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, on the level of SMA 5, but below SMA 14. RSI is below the level of 50% and is reversing upwards. Stoch have left the oversold territory.

Trading recommendations:

Sell the pair at its growth from the mark of 0.6815, while a further drop to 0.6715 is possible.

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Amazon shares remain in a sideways move between 1588.74 support and resistance at 1676.43.

The price fluctuates between the 50 and 20 moving averages that continue to form a kind of channel in which the price moves within which the average is 50 support and the average 20 ...

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Amazon shares remain in a sideways move between 1588.74 support and resistance at 1676.43.

The price fluctuates between the 50 and 20 moving averages that continue to form a kind of channel in which the price moves within which the average is 50 support and the average 20 resistance.

Stochastic is starting to move up the upside path towards the overbought area and if it is able to reach it we will see more bullish price action.

The general direction of the movement: neutral.

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Gold futures traded in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session for the second consecutive weekly gain, shrugging off the US dollar's third-day low since Feb. 6, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the University of ...

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Gold futures traded in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session for the second consecutive weekly gain, shrugging off the US dollar's third-day low since Feb. 6, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the University of Bologna and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee in New York later on Friday and looking forward to the fruits of trade talks between America and China in Washington.

Gold futures for April delivery rose 0.11% to currently trade at $ 1,327.40 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,325.80 per ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 96.62. Higher in two weeks compared to the opening at 96.59.

Investors are waiting for federal Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams to speak at a panel discussion entitled "Inflation Outlook with a High-Pressure Economy" before giving the closing remarks of the first annual joint research day On Quantitative Instruments for Macroeconomic and Financial Monitoring, organized by the Bank of Atlanta and Bank of New York.

Later, Fed Deputy Governor Richard Clarida will speak to us at the US Monetary Policy Forum on "Reviewing the Federal Reserve for Monetary Policy Strategies, Financial Instruments and Communications" before we see the participation of St. Louis Governor James Pollard and Deputy Governor Federal Randall Quarles at a panel discussion entitled "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet."

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month. The committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

In a press conference following the FOMC meeting at the end of last month, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell noted that the Federal Reserve will be patient and monitor economic data as the downside risks to the economy mount from global growth and financial market volatility, Explaining that the continuation of that approach will depend on the economic data during the coming period.

In the same context, the Federal Reserve Governor Paul said last Tuesday that economic data confirm that the US economy is in a good position and that unemployment rates are stabilizing at the lowest in half a century, with the fact that there are some groups in American society do not feel prosperous after , And that the reflection of interest movements on the markets takes some time, saying he did not see the risks of economic recession high.

Global gold consumption rose to 4,345.1 metric tons last year from 4,159.9 metric tons in 2017. Retail investment in bullion and gold coins rose 4 percent to 1,090.2 metric tons, supported by Iran's demand increase of 222 percent to 62 metric tons, Demand for jewelry has stabilized at around 2,200 metric tons with increased consumption compensation in both China, the United States and Russia for lower demand from the Middle East and India.

In contrast, the demand for financial institutions fell by 67% from the year 2017, when the world supply of gold increased 1% to a total of 4,490.2 metric tons in 2018. The gold futures contracts last month made the fourth monthly gain, respectively, illustrated Has seen its longest monthly gains since late 2010, after ending its longest monthly loss march since late 1996.

Technical analysis:


The price of gold is approaching our awaited target at 1318.00 and fluctuating around the 50% Fibonacci level now, accompanied by negative signs through Stochastic, which makes us expect the bearish bias to continue in the coming sessions, noting that exceeding this level will push the price to test the 1310.00 level which represents the most important support For short-term trading.

On the other hand, keep in mind that a breach of 1330.00 and then 1336.20 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish trend, with the next key target at 1352.50.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1310.00 and resistance at 1336.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.

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The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow bullish range during the Asian session to witness a rebound to the fourth session in six sessions from its lowest since February 11 against the Japanese yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the ...

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The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow bullish range during the Asian session to witness a rebound to the fourth session in six sessions from its lowest since February 11 against the Japanese yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the threshold of the recent members The Federal Open Market Committee in New York later on Friday.

At 06:13 GMT, the pair rose 0.06% to 110.77 compared to the opening levels at 110.70 after recording a high of 110.81 and a low of 110.63.

On the Japanese economy, the national consumer price index (CPI), which showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2% in line with expectations, rose from 0.3% in the previous reading for December, while the annual reading of the same index excludes fresh food excluding energy and fresh food Growth accelerated to 0.8% in line with expectations versus 0.9%, and to 0.4% also compatible with expectations versus 0.3%.

Otherwise, we followed Wednesday the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the issues related to the yen's currency were not addressed in the recent trade talks with the United States last September, and that he will discuss this with US Trade Representative Robert Whitehouse himself later, because The yen has been affected by ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing, which investors always see as a safe haven to trade with.

This came hours after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Tuesday told the Japanese parliament that the Bank of Japan was ready to expand stimulus if the yen's strong rise hurt the economy and hampered efforts to push inflationary pressures to the Bank of Japan's target of 2 percent, Among the Bank of Japan's expansionary policies is the interest rate cut and the size of the asset purchase program.

The Japanese government announced earlier this month a ten-day holiday from Saturday 27 April to Monday, May 6 next year for the celebrations of Japan's rise of the new emperor to rule there during the official holiday, and that to be crowned Crown Prince at the beginning of May, and we wish to point out that this six-day holiday will be the longest in Japan's history

On the other hand, the Fed's Deputy Governor Richard Clarida will later address us to a speech entitled "Federal Reserve Review of Monetary Policy Strategies, Financial Instruments, and Communications" at the US Monetary Policy Forum, before we see the participation of St. Louis Governor James Pollard And Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles at a panel discussion entitled "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet."

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month, and the committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

Technical analysis:


USD / JPY continues to fluctuate sideways, and as the price is above 110.24, the bullish scenario will remain effective for the coming period, supported by the 50 moving average that continues to carry the price from the bottom, while we are waiting for a 111.56 visit as the next major station.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 110.24 and the resistance at 111.56.

The general trend for today is bullish.

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The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound to its second low since February 12 against the US dollar, following hours of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe's testimony before the Standing Committee of the Australian House of Representatives ...

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The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound to its second low since February 12 against the US dollar, following hours of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe's testimony before the Standing Committee of the Australian House of Representatives Economics in Sydney, The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet in New York later Friday.

At 02:58 GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.08% to 0.7098 compared with the opening levels at 0.7092, after reaching a high of 0.7115, while reaching a low of 0.7085.

Australian Reserve Bank Governor Philippe Lowe said the Australian Reserve released two weeks ago its Australian economy forecast for growth of 3 percent in 2019 and before growth slows to 2 percent by the next year 2020. The economy may be expanding Nearly three percent over the last year 2018, adding that those expectations are better than the previous forecast in August last.

He praised the decline in the unemployment rate, which stabilized last month at five percent, the lowest level since mid-2011, while keeping in mind the expectations of continued strength of the labor market and the decline of unemployment rates to four percent over the next two years, and inflationary pressures reported that it came less Slightly from the expectations of the third quarter and a quarter of last year due to changing government policies on childcare and falling gasoline prices.

In the same vein, he noted that inflationary pressures are expected to continue during the current quarter, noting that inflationary pressures are still above their two-year lows, and that they may see a gradual increase beyond the Australian Reserve's expectations by the end of 2020 to reach inflation target Of the Australian Central Bank at two percent, while addressing the global and domestic economic challenges that guide his country to the House of Representatives.

This comes hours after the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held on the fifth of this month, which approved the makers of monetary policy to stabilize interest rates at 1.50% for the twenty-eighth meeting in a row, which came in line with the expectations of analysts at the time, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Louis Nuh said the outlook for the interest rate was broadly balanced.

Which was then priced in the markets as cautionary comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "Over the past year, it was a scenario that the next step up is likely on the scenario that the next step is reduced, and today the odds are moderately balanced," he said. The labor market is stronger and more hawkish, as interest rates may rise, while any weakness in the labor market will hurt the Reserve Bank of Australia to reassess the situation.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for Federal Fed members to speak to Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams, who will be involved in a panel discussion entitled "Inflation Outlook with a High-Pressure Economy", before presenting the closing remarks of the annual meeting Joint Research on Quantitative Instruments for Macroeconomic and Financial Monitoring, organized by the Bank of Atlanta and Bank of New York.

Later, Fed Deputy Governor Richard Clarida will speak to us at the US Monetary Policy Forum on "Reviewing the Federal Reserve for Monetary Policy Strategies, Financial Instruments and Communications" before we see the participation of St. Louis Governor James Pollard and Deputy Governor Federal Randall Quarles at a panel discussion entitled "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet."

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month. The committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

Technical analysis:


The AUDUSD broke the support of the bullish intraday channel that appears in the image, to activate the bearish scenario over the intraday basis, pending targeting the 0.7000 level mainly.

Moving below SMA 50 supports the expected decline, while stability below 0.7125 is an important condition for achieving the expected targets.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.7000 and the resistance at 0.7140.

The general trend for today is bearish.

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The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range during the Asian session to see its rebound for a third straight session since Feb. 6 against the US dollar on the eve of economic developments and data expected on Friday by Eurozone economies, European Central ...

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The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range during the Asian session to see its rebound for a third straight session since Feb. 6 against the US dollar on the eve of economic developments and data expected on Friday by Eurozone economies, European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi at the University of Bologna, and is looking forward to speaking with members of the Federal Open Market Committee in New York.

At 04:59 GMT, the EURUSD dropped 0.01% to 1.1335 compared to the opening at 1.1336 after recording a low of 1.1332 and a high of 1.1342.

German markets are looking for the end of GDP reading for the fourth quarter, which may reflect stable stability at zero levels for the eurozone's largest economies, unchanged from the previous reading and 0.2% contraction in the third quarter. The same growth stability of 0.6% and the seasonally adjusted annual reading of the index may show a 0.6% growth.

This comes ahead of Germany's reading of the IFO Business Climate Index, which may reflect a contraction of 99.0 vs. 99.1 in January, while the same indicator of expectations may show widening stability of 94.2, The same as the current assessments, which narrowed to 103.9 from 104.3 last month.

Leading to inflation data for the whole eurozone as the final reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which may reflect a stable 1.4% growth, was unchanged from the previous January preliminary reading, as the final core annual reading The same index stabilizes growth to 1.1%.

Otherwise, European Commission President John Claude Juncker on Thursday described Britain's exit from the European Union as a real disaster, pointing out that the exit is the past of the United Kingdom and not its future, adding that he does not rule out Britain's exit from the EU without an agreement, In the avoidance of the worst, and the statement that he is not optimistic about the broad, and is expected to issue a report on Italy next week.

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month, and the committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

Technical analysis:


The EUR / USD pair continues to fluctuate between the pivotal levels of 1.1310 and resistance at 1.1380, so there is no change to our neutral position, as we wait to breach one of these levels to define the next targets more precisely.

We will mention that breaching the resistance will push the price to resume positive attempts and achieve targets starting at 1.1443 and then 1.1550, while breaking the support will put the price under negative pressure targeting the test of 1.1180 mainly.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1240 and resistance at 1.1430.

The expected general trend for today: neutral.

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EUSUSD 

The pair is trading below 1.1355, but above 1.1325. If the industrial index data from Germany turns out to be weaker than predicted, the pair may continue falling.

The price is above the middle Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is above the level ...

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EUSUSD 

The pair is trading below 1.1355, but above 1.1325. If the industrial index data from Germany turns out to be weaker than predicted, the pair may continue falling.

The price is above the middle Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is above the level of 50% and is overall moving horizontally. Stoch are indicating weaker decline of the price.

Trading recommendations:

Sell the pair after it goes below 1.1325 with a possible target of 1.1250.

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Cisco shares continue to rise for the seventh week in a row supported by the moving averages that move down the price in a positive order and give stability and stability in the ascending.

The price managed to break through the previous high at 49.62, so we can say ...

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Cisco shares continue to rise for the seventh week in a row supported by the moving averages that move down the price in a positive order and give stability and stability in the ascending.

The price managed to break through the previous high at 49.62, so we can say that we are on a new bullish path.

Stochastic continues to climb. Currently moving within the zone of saturation of the purchase and if continued movement within this disaster we will see a rise in price.

The general trend of the movement is bullish.

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Gold futures fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session as the dollar index fell for the fifth consecutive session from its highest since December 17 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy largest ...

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Gold futures fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session as the dollar index fell for the fifth consecutive session from its highest since December 17 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy largest World economy and with the US-China trade talks in Washington.

At 04:04 am GMT, gold futures for April delivery rose 0.08% to currently trade at $ 1,342.70 per ounce compared with the opening at $ 1.341.70 an ounce, amid the decline of the US dollar index of 0.01% to 96.48 levels, explaining the sequence of rebound from Higher in two months compared to the opening at 96.49.

Investors from the US, the world's largest industrial nation, are waiting to see the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, which may reflect a contraction of 14.1 versus January's 17.0, in conjunction with the February 16 reading of the Jobless Claims Index May reflect a drop of 11,000 to 228,000 versus 239,000 last week.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Durable Goods Orders, which account for nearly half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect accelerated growth to 1.6% from 0.7% in November. The core reading of the index itself is up 0.3% from 0.4% in November.

Before we see the preliminary reading of the PMI index for the United States of America for the month of February, amid expectations of the expansion of the service sector to 54.4 compared to 54.2 in January, and the stability of the industrial sector at 54.9 compared to 54.8 With little change from what it was in January.

To the release of housing market data with the release of the existing home sales index, which may reflect a rise of 1.5% to 5.01 million, compared with 6.4% decline at 4.99 million in December, coinciding with the release of the leading indicators for the month of January Which could show a 0.1% rise versus a 0.1% decline in December.

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month, and the committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

In a press conference following the FOMC meeting at the end of last month, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell noted that the Federal Reserve will be patient and monitor economic data as the downside risks to the economy mount from global growth and financial market volatility, Explaining that the continuation of that approach will depend on the economic data during the coming period.

Technical analysis:


The price of gold provided negative trading yesterday to test the SMA 50, where a bearish correction is being made for the recent bullish wave that started from 1302.34 areas, noting that Stochastic is showing positive signs now, waiting for the price to resume the bullish wave

Therefore, we continue to favor the bullishness over intraday and short term, noting that our awaited targets start at 1350.00 then 1365.05, while 1336.20 represents the break down the correctional wave to reach 1330.00 and may extend to 1318.00 before any new attempt to rise.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1330.00 and resistance at 1350.00.

The general trend for today is bullish.

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The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound to its second-highest session since Feb. 14 against the Japanese Yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the eve of ...

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The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound to its second-highest session since Feb. 14 against the Japanese Yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the eve of developments and economic data expected today Thursday by the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 06:10 GMT, the USDJPY dropped 0.11% to 110.73 from the opening levels at 110.85 after recording a low of 110.59 and a high of 110.87.

On the Japanese economy, we saw the initial reading of the industrial PMI, which showed a contraction at 48.5 versus an increase of 50.3 in January. From 0.5% in November, worse than the 0.2% drop.

Otherwise, we followed Wednesday the Japanese Finance Minister said that the issues related to the currency of his country, the Japanese yen, were not discussed in the recent trade talks with the United States last September, and that he would discuss this with US Trade Representative Robert Laitheiser himself later, Yen trade talks between Washington and Beijing, which investors always see as a safe haven for trade tensions.

This came hours after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Tuesday told the Japanese parliament that the Bank of Japan was ready to expand stimulus if the yen's strong rise hurt the economy and hampered efforts to push inflationary pressures to the Bank of Japan's target of 2 percent, Among the Bank of Japan's expansionary policies is the interest rate cut and the size of the asset purchase program.

The Japanese government announced earlier this month a ten-day holiday from Saturday 27 April to Monday, May 6 next year for the celebrations of Japan's rise of the new emperor to rule there during the official holiday, and that to be crowned Crown Prince at the beginning of May, and we wish to point out that this six-day holiday will be the longest in Japan's history

On the other hand, investors by the US economy, the world's largest industrial nation, are looking to release the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, which may reflect a narrowing to 14.1 versus 17.0 last January, in conjunction with the February 16 Jobless Claims reading Which could reflect a drop of 11K to 228K versus 239K last week.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Durable Goods Orders, which account for nearly half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect accelerated growth to 1.6% from 0.7% in November. The core reading of the index itself is up 0.3% from 0.4% in November.

Before we see the preliminary reading of the PMI index for the United States of America for the month of February, amid expectations of the expansion of the service sector to 54.4 compared to 54.2 in January, and the stability of the industrial sector at 54.9 compared to 54.8 With little change from what it was in January.

To the release of housing market data with the release of the existing home sales index, which may reflect a rise of 1.5% to 5.01 million, compared with 6.4% decline at 4.99 million in December, coinciding with the release of the leading indicators for the month of January Which could show a 0.1% rise versus a 0.1% decline in December.

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month, and the committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

Technical analysis:


The USD / JPY pair has been trading sideways since yesterday, settling above SMA 50 which is good support for intraday trading, while Stochastic is beginning to provide a positive cross signal now.

Therefore, we believe that opportunities are available for resuming the expected bullish wave for the coming period, where our next target is at 111.56, while the price needs to stabilize above 110.24 to ensure the continuation of the suggested bullishness.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 110.24 and the resistance at 111.56.

The general trend for today is bullish.

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