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Spain will have to accept the help
 
Despite the fact that the Spanish authorities have resisted the proposal of three creditors to take financial aid, in the next 2 weeks Madrid will have to resort it. Assessing the overall picture taking shape in the minds of the leaders ...
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Spain will have to accept the help
 
Despite the fact that the Spanish authorities have resisted the proposal of three creditors to take financial aid, in the next 2 weeks Madrid will have to resort it. Assessing the overall picture taking shape in the minds of the leaders of the euro zone, the pressure on Spain will not only continue, but to grow, which means that euro zone leaders will not allow the inside of the monetary union of troubled countries remained a "troublemaker" calm because of which will be played permanently crisis in Europe.
 
Friday's employment data in the U.S. economy, despite its ambiguity, have had severe pressure on the U.S. dollar and it looks like this trend will continue. And today, because of the U.S. celebration of the Columbus Day, activity in the markets will be small and most likely will continue to consolidate.
 
Statistics today:
Moscow time
 
11.15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index in September n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.0% m / m
12.30 Eurozone investor confidence in the medium on October Sentix n / a; -20,6; -23,2
14.00 Germany Industrial production in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, 1.3% y / y
U.S. markets are closed due to the celebration of Columbus Day.
Sergei Kostenko
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GBP/USD
 
The news background: 
Pair is consolidated after yesterday's convincing growth against the backdrop of the decision of Bank of England to left the rates at the same level as well as the amount of redemption of government bonds. If today the statistics from the U ...
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GBP/USD
 
The news background: 
Pair is consolidated after yesterday's convincing growth against the backdrop of the decision of Bank of England to left the rates at the same level as well as the amount of redemption of government bonds. If today the statistics from the U.S. will be positive, the pair can get good support.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the upper Bollinger and above MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. is overbought. The RSI indicates a weakening of growth of pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a couple of the likely short-term goal 1.6235, if the data on employment in the U.S. is not worse than expectations.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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Statistics from the USA is in the focus today
 
Minutes of the Fed meeting confirmed the determination of the Federal Reserve to conduct QE 3 and all other colleagues doubt the bulk of Bernanke and U.S. lawmakers agree with the beginning of the program and believe that ...
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Statistics from the USA is in the focus today
 
Minutes of the Fed meeting confirmed the determination of the Federal Reserve to conduct QE 3 and all other colleagues doubt the bulk of Bernanke and U.S. lawmakers agree with the beginning of the program and believe that it will be effective. 
In general, the Fed said about waiting for a "moderate growth in the next quarter, but the pace of increase for the period 2013-2015" years.
 
Against the background of the Fed meeting minutes and markets are already established tradition for the second time a positive answer to their publication. The American dollar has continued to fall, with a large total against the euro yesterday as ECB President Draghi M. inspired investors. He said that the ECB is ready to start at any time for redemption of debt securities of European problem countries outside the monetary union.
 
Mario Draghi reassured markets that the ECB is "quite an effective mechanism for the implementation" of the plan. Parameters of the scheme of redemption of government bonds were not announced at the press conference, but the single currency continues to rise on these expectations. In addition, investors continue to believe that Spain will still have to resort to financial aid, despite its opposition to this, it seems, the markets still make the Spaniards do it.
 
Today, the players' attention entirely on the statistics from the U.S.. Positive data clearly lead to a weaker dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
11.00 Switzerland foreign exchange reserves in September n / a; n / a; 418,4 billion francs
13.00 Eurozone Final data on changes in GDP Q2. 2012 n / a; -0,2% q / q, 0.2% q / q
Germany 14.00 Change in orders in industry in August n / a; -0,4% m / m and 0.5% m / m
Canada 16.30 Number of building permits in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, -2.3% m / m
16.30 Canada Changing the number of employed in September n / a; 11.900; 34.300
16.30 Canada unemployment rate in September n / a; 7,3%; 7,3%
16:30 U.S. Change in number of employees (excluding agriculture) September n / a; 111.000; 96.000
16.30 U.S. unemployment rate in September n / a; 8,2%; 8,1%
16:30 U.S. Change in average hourly wages in September n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.0% m / m
21.00 of the members of the U.S. FOMC E. Duke
23.00 Change of U.S. consumer credit in August n / a; 6,3 billion; -3.3 billion

Sergei Kostenko

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Dollar will be under pressure today
 
Market situation remains tense. Spain's unwillingness to take advantage of financial aid, makes the situation worse and uncertain. And the expectation of weak corporate reports of American companies has put pressure on commodity assets and risk-appetite of investors. And this is happening ...
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Dollar will be under pressure today
 
Market situation remains tense. Spain's unwillingness to take advantage of financial aid, makes the situation worse and uncertain. And the expectation of weak corporate reports of American companies has put pressure on commodity assets and risk-appetite of investors. And this is happening despite the positive data on employment in the private sector, the U.S. from the company Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), which was better than expected. The number of jobs in September increased by 162,000. ISM service sector index for September also came out better than expected 55.1 points versus 53.2 points predicted value.
 
Statistics from the Eurozone has also proved to be somewhat better than expected, though, and in General remained quite sad. PMI from Eurozone service sector in September rose to 46.1 points from 46.0 points in August, the forecast of 46 points. PMI consolidated euro area, which includes data manufacturing sector in September rose to 46.1 points from 45.9 points a month earlier in the forecast 45.9 points.
 
But despite that investors continued to be cautious before the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week and the decision of the Bank of England and ECB interest rates. It can be assumed that the rates will remain the same. But the attention of market participants will focus on ECB President Draghi M., and publishing protocol Moments Fed, which will be published later in the evening.
 
On the foreign exchange market there was a slight weakening of the us dollar. It is obvious that investors expect that the statistics would not be worse than expected, and the minutes of the fed and the words Dredges are aspirational and on this background, the U.S. currency will continue to decline, and the attitude of investors to the risky game improve somewhat.
 
Statistics for today:
Moscow time
 
Volume 15.00 UK asset purchase by the Bank of England, n / a; n / a; 375 billion pounds
15.00 UK decision of the Bank of England's interest rate n / a; 0,50%; 0,50%
during the day UK Statement on the interest rate the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
15.30 The number of planned layoffs USA (from Challenger) September n / a; n / a; -36,9% y / y
15.45 Eurozone ECB's decision on interest rates n / a; 0,75%; 0,75%
16.30 Eurozone ECB press conference
16.30 U.S. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits 24.09-30.09 n / a; 371.000; 359.000
18.00 Canada Business Index from September Ivey n / a; 59,0; 62,5
18.00 U.S. volume of industrial orders in August n / a; -4,1% m / m and 2.8% m / m
18.30 Change in U.S. natural gas reserves 24.09-30.09 n / a; n / a; 80 billion cubic meters. ft.
21.30 Canada's Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada T.Maklema
22.00 U.S. publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting
 
Sergei Kostenko
 

 

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It seems that Australian dollar will continue its free fall
 
After the fateful decision of RBA to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% points to the level of 3.5% of the Australian currency continued its decline against their counterparts to four-week low. 
This decline ...
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It seems that Australian dollar will continue its free fall
 
After the fateful decision of RBA to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% points to the level of 3.5% of the Australian currency continued its decline against their counterparts to four-week low. 
This decline is primarily due to the probability of a further decline in interest rates and the change in the economic situation in China, to which Australia is in a close trade relations.
Further weakening of the Chinese economy may lead to a cycle of interest rate cuts RBA.
 
Activity in the services sector in Australia in September, continued to shrink. According to the index of business activity in the services of the Australian Industry Group / Commonwealth Bank index fell by 0.5 points to 41.9 points. Value below 50 indicates a drop in activity.
The continuing stagnation in the economy, it seems, will continue to put pressure on the national currency and, possibly, can be expected to decline in the short term to the minimum values of the beginning of September.
The single currency is consolidating amid the ongoing "struggle" of the Spanish authorities to the pressure that is on them has a market, the rating agencies and the ECB, together with the European Stability Fund, forcing the resort to financial aid.
 
Hard savings plan is good in Spain and even too good, but the markets have doubts on this point, which results in ongoing since the middle of last week, the pair Eurodollar consolidation.
 
Today we should pay attention to the statistics on employment of ADP from the U.S. and the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector of the ISM. Good short-term statistics will pressure the U.S. dollar.
 
Statistics today:
Moscow time
12.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the service sector in September n / a; 46,0; 46,0
12.30 UK index of business activity in the service in September n / a; 53,1; 53,7
12.30 Change of UK mortgages are not used for the purchase or repair of houses Q2. 2012 n / a; -8,6 billion pounds -8.8 billion pounds
13.00 Eurozone retail sales in August n / a; 0,0% m / m, -0.2% m / m
16:15 U.S. Change the number of employees (excluding agriculture), according to ADP September n / a; 148.000; 201.000
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the ISM non-manufacturing sector in September n / a; 53,4; 53,7
18:30 U.S. Change oil 24.09-30.09 n / a; n / a; -2,4 million barrels.
 

Sergei Kostenko

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Wall Street finished a successful quarter
 
The American stock market closed on Friday with a reduction but finished the 2nd quater positively .The decision to actively support the global monetary liquidity contributed to the growth of the Central Bank is the U.S. market, as investors in the ...
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Wall Street finished a successful quarter
 
The American stock market closed on Friday with a reduction but finished the 2nd quater positively .The decision to actively support the global monetary liquidity contributed to the growth of the Central Bank is the U.S. market, as investors in the global financial crisis, chose to park in the U.S. financial assets.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 49.58 (-0.36%). Among banking stocks were the largest decline of paper of Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Co. which fell from 0.76% to 1.56%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,437.13 (-0.36%); S & P 500 - 1,440.67 (-0.45%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,116.23 (-0.65%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,439.80 (+0.39%). U.S. markets will open with a slight increase.
 
Oil futures before the opening in New York continue to decline amid expectations of a prolonged global recession and the lack of real incentives for local growth.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 111.71 (-0.61%), the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 91.71 (-0.52%). Gold futures stood at 1,770.90 (-0.17%), quotes copper at 374.50 (-0.35).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1258.11 (-0.69%).
 
In the currency market, the dollar remains under pressure against the good data from Europe index procurement, which rose to 47.4 points from 44.7 points in Germany to 46.1 points from 45.1 points in the euro area. It seems the weakening dollar has more to do with the adjustment of investors' positions to Bernanke and the publication of statistics from the U.S..
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.86 (-0.21%).
   
Prediction of the day:
We should pay attention to the statistics from the U.S., as well as the speech of Bernanke. Very much will depend on it. The positive results of the first month of the new incentives can support markets and gave some pressure on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.30 Canada price index for natural resources to manufacturers in August n / a; 1,4% m / m and 0.9% m / m
16.30 Canada price index for manufactured goods in August n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.5% m / m
17.00 U.S. Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 51,5; 51,5
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from September ISM n / a; 49,8; 49,6
18.00 U.S. Expenditures for construction in August n / a; 0,6% m / m, -0.9% m / m
18.00 U.S. producer price index from September ISM n / a; 55,6; 54,0
20.00 U.S. President's speech FRB San Francisco J. Williams
20.30 Address by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
 
Sergei Kostenko
 

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Events in Spain are dragging down the whole world economy
 
Spanish factor became a symbol of instability in the global crisis and replaced the Greece. 
The growth of protest moods and unwillingness of Madrid to have recourse to the financial support of the European Fund of stability and ...
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Events in Spain are dragging down the whole world economy
 
Spanish factor became a symbol of instability in the global crisis and replaced the Greece. 
The growth of protest moods and unwillingness of Madrid to have recourse to the financial support of the European Fund of stability and of the ECB, more and more destabilizing the situation.
An additional negative factors are the results of stress tests of national banks. "IFS audit" - independent audit showed that Spain's banking sector will require about 60 billion euros of additional funds to cope with the economic downturn. But thus the Spanish authorities have said they will ask for the help of banks, only 40 billion market participants believe that such aid is small and on this background, today the single currency continues to decline.
 
Despite evidence of an increase in business activity in the industry in China PMI in September from 49.2 to 49.8, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the problems in the Australian economy is continuing, which could lead to a reduction in business activity in the manufacturing sector. The business activity index fell from 1.2 points to 44.1 points. Value is below the level of 50 points, which shows the reduction of activity. A general picture of the economy could lead to further reduction in key interest rates.
Today investors will be focused on the speech Bernanke. Market participants want to hear the first results of a new program of quantitative easing. A major event of the week will be the publication of data on employment in the U.S., which will be published on Friday.
We can say in general that the picture of uncertainty will continue for some time yet and most likely, lateral trend in the forex market will continue.
 
Statistics for today:
Moscow time
Switzerland 11.15 Retail sales in August n / a; 4,1% y / y, 3.2% y / y
11.30 Switzerland Index of business activity from September SVME n / a; 47,6; 46,7
12.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 46,0; 46,0
12.30 UK index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 49,5; 49,5
12.30 UK change in total private lending in August n / a; 0,7 billion pounds, 0.9 billion pounds
12:30 UK M4 money supply August n / a; 0,7% m / m and 0.5% m / m
12.30 UK Number of approved applications for mortgage loan in August n / a; 50.000; 47.000
13.00 Eurozone unemployment rate in August n / a; 11,4%; 11,3%
16.30 Canada price index for natural resources to manufacturers in August n / a; 1,4% m / m and 0.9% m / m
16.30 Canada price index for manufactured goods in August n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.5% m / m
17.00 U.S. Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 51,5; 51,5
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from September ISM n / a; 49,8; 49,6
18.00 U.S. Expenditures for construction in August n / a; 0,6% m / m, -0.9% m / m
18.00 U.S. producer price index from September ISM n / a; 55,6; 54,0
20.00 U.S. President's speech in San Francisco Fed Dzh.Uilyamsa
20.30 U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speech

Sergei Kostenko

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A holy place is never empty
 
Spanish issue with great force swooped down on the world market, causing new concerns that the recession in the European economy burying the entire global economy. The growing political tension in Spain amid reluctance to resort to the financial assistance of the ...
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A holy place is never empty
 
Spanish issue with great force swooped down on the world market, causing new concerns that the recession in the European economy burying the entire global economy. The growing political tension in Spain amid reluctance to resort to the financial assistance of the European Stability Fund and the ECB finally plunged into depression and investors forced to sell risky assets. If until recently bogey instability was Greece, it took place successfully Pyrenees republic.
Spanish unwillingness to take the financial assistance is clear, as it will in fact took of independence in the financial area from Madrid, that's why the prime-minister eclared that he would not ask for help until government bonds is not significantly increased. But the markets heard it completely "worked" to the premier, returning yield on 10-year government bonds to a higher level of 6%. Which points to the fact that Madrid will have to take care and wear the yoke of iron grip IMF.
Today, all eyes will be on view in Spain for the next budget year, and the GDP forecast from the Spanish government for the next year. Today, market participants will be expected to publish the results of stress tests of independent Spanish banks.
Start a debate about the effectiveness of QE 3, and Spanish events overshadowed the Fed's actions, which led to a decrease in the yield of 10-year bonds to the level of 1.63%, which fully reflects the concerns of investors.
 
Against the background of the tumultuous events of recent days, investor activity has fallen markedly, and the U.S. dollar were encouraged to grow along with the Japanese yen. But if the situation will be stabilized around Spain, and statistics from the eurozone and the U.S. will not be worse than expected, it could lead to a local weakening of the U.S. dollar and the increase in short-term tendency of investors to the risky game.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
Germany 11.55 Changing the number of unemployed in August n / a; 10,000; 9,000
12.00 Eurozone M3 money supply August n / a; 3,3% y / y, 3.8% y / y
12.00 Eurozone private sector lending in August n / a; 0,1% y / y and 0.1% y / y
12.10 Eurozone business activity in the retail sector in September n / a; n / a; 44,4
12.30 UK Final figures for Q2 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; -0,5% q / q, -0.5% q / q
12.30 UK balance of payments Q2. 2012 n / a; -12,2 billion pounds -11.2 billion pounds
12.30 UK Revised data on business investment Q2. 2012 n / a; -1,5% q / q, 1.5% q / q
Basic index of 16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in August n / a; 0,2% m / m, -0.6% m / m
16.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week of September 16-22, n / a; 378,000; 382,000
16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in August n / a; -4,3% m / m, 4.1% y / y
16.30 U.S. Final figures for Q2 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; 1,7% q / q and 1.7% q / q
16.30 U.S. Final figures for Q2 GDP deflator. 2012 n / a; 1,6% q / q and 1.6% q / q
18.00 Outstanding U.S. home sales in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, 2.4% y / y
18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week September 16-22, n / a; n / a; 67 Bcf
 

Sergei Kostenko

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AUD/USD
 
News background:
The pair continues to remain under pressure amid falling commodity and commodity assets, and reducing the risk appetite of investors. Despite this sharp decline, we expect that it will be local.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the ...
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AUD/USD
 
News background:
The pair continues to remain under pressure amid falling commodity and commodity assets, and reducing the risk appetite of investors. Despite this sharp decline, we expect that it will be local.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the lower Bollinger and MA 5 and MA 21 if it drops below the level of 1.03115, then there is a possibility of further fall to 1.0250. If it overcomes the 1.0375 level, there is the possibility of its local growth from 1.0435.
Oscillator Stoch. is oversold. The RSI indicates the possibility of continuation of local reduction. pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a pair of short-term to 1.3185, if it bounces above 1.0375.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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The market expects the plan of salvation of Spain will be announced soon
 
European shares ended trading on Tuesday with a slight increase because of hopes that Spain will accept the financial assistance and because of the positive data from the U.S. consumer confidence, which came out ...
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The market expects the plan of salvation of Spain will be announced soon
 
European shares ended trading on Tuesday with a slight increase because of hopes that Spain will accept the financial assistance and because of the positive data from the U.S. consumer confidence, which came out better than expected. Overall, the picture in the market is still not unequivocal and unstable, causing a sharp rise of optimism and the same sharp drop him.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 108.64 (+0.97%). Shares of UniCredit, Societe Generale and Intesa Sanpaolo fell from 1.98% to 2.64%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,859.71 (+0.36%); DAX 30 - 3,513.81 (+0.47%); CAC 40 - 7,425.11 (+0.16%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,535.00 (+ -1.02%). Trading in Europe will open the fall of the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Tuesday at 1,119.79 (+0.36%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.67% (-0.001 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.58% (-0.057 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.82% (+0.005 NCP).
Oil futures in the morning before the opening of the European trading session down against yesterday's correction in the U.S. stock market and the fall in Asian markets. The main reason for the increased volatility in the market is the end of the fiscal year, which lead to chaos in the markets.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 109.77 (-0.62%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 90.67 (-0.77%).
Gold futures morning at 1,765.30 (-0.06%), quotes of copper at
373.95 (-0.51%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 306.71 (+0.25%).
 
In the currency market continues withdrawal of investors from risk. The U.S. dollar is supported because of persistence of Spain in adopting financial assistance. Tomorrow will be presented with a plan for Madrid to get out of the crisis. But in spite of this market has no faith in its success.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.88 (+0.33%).
 
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair may continue to decline to the level of 1.2800.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
during the day Germany Preliminary CPI September n / a; 0,0% m / m, 0.4% y / y
12.30 Review of UK credit conditions of the Bank of England
14.00 UK Realized sales according to CBI September n / a; 6, -3
18.00 U.S. sales in the primary market in August n / a; 381,000; 372,000
18.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the week September 16-22, n / a; n / a; 8,5 million barrels.
 
Sergei Kostenko

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