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June 2019

JPY analysis 10.06.2019

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range inclined during the Asian session to see its rebound for the second session in four sessions from its lowest since January 10 against the Japanese yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the brink of developments And economic data expected Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 06:02 GMT, the USDJPY rose 0.09% to 108.65 compared to the opening levels at 108.55 after reaching the highest level since the end of May at 108.67, while the lowest level during the session At 108.37, with the pair starting the week's trading on a bullish price gap after closing last week's trading at 108.19.

We followed the Japanese economy to reveal the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) final reading which showed growth accelerated to 0.6% in line with expectations compared to the previous first quarter and last quarter's reading of 0.5%. Growth to 2.2% in line with expectations compared to the preliminary reading of 2.1% and 1.9% in the annual reading for the fourth quarter.

In the same context, the annualized reading of GDP showed a slowing of growth to 0.1% compared to the previous preliminary reading of the first quarter and expectations of 0.2% and against a contraction of 0.3% in the previous annual reading of the fourth quarter, coincided with the disclosure of the annual reading of the bank lending index which Growth accelerated to 2.6% from April's previous reading and expectations of 2.4%.

We also followed the world's third-largest economy by reading the current account index, which showed the surplus shrank to 1.71 trillion yen from 2.85 trillion yen in March, beating expectations that the surplus would shrink to 1.51 trillion yen, while the seasonally adjusted index The surplus widened to 1.60 trillion yen from 1.27 trillion yen in March, well above expectations of 1.44 trillion yen.

To the release of Echo Watchers' current and future statistics from the Japanese Cabinet Office, which showed a contraction of 44.1 to current conditions and 45.6 for the future versus 45.3 and 48.4 respectively in April, The current situation shrank to 45.5 and future conditions shrank to 48.0.

On the other hand, the markets are currently looking at the US economy for a statistical reading of job opportunities and job turnover, which could reflect a rise to 7.50 million from 7.49 million in March, hours after the release of labor market data at the end of last week Which showed a stable unemployment rate at its lowest level in 49 years at 3.6%, unchanged from last April, in line with expectations.

In the same context, we also followed last Friday's reading of the Non-Farm Employment Change Index showed a slowdown in job creation to 75,000 added jobs, compared to 224,000 jobs added in April, while the average income per hour showed stable growth at 0.2%, unchanged from April, in contrast to expectations of a 0.3% growth rate.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY pair has made fresh attempts to break the 108.00 level, but has not been able to hold back below it, to provide positive trading and test SMA 50, which is a strong resistance to the price, and as long as the price is below 108.80, , Noting that the break of 108.00 will confirm the extension of the downside wave towards 106.75 in the near term.

The trading range for today is expected among the key support at 107.60 and the resistance at 109.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.

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