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June 2019

AUD analysis 18.06.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see its sixth session rebound in eight sessions from its highest since May 8 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday from Ahead of the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 0217 GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.10% to 0.6846, compared to the opening levels of 0.6853, after hitting its lowest level since January 3 at 0.6840, while its highest During the trading session at 0.6857.

Australian Reserve Bank released the minutes of the April 4 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in which the monetary policy makers at the Reserve Bank of Australia (ACB) approved a short-term benchmark interest rate cut of 25 basis points for the first time in nearly Three years to 1.25% from 1.50%, which was expected by analysts in the markets at the time.

This came in conjunction with the release of Australian housing market data with the reading of the house price index, which showed a widening of the decline to 3.0% compared to 2.4% in the fourth quarter, worse than expectations of a widening of the decline to 2.5%, as evidenced by the annual reading of the same index also widening The drop to 7.4% vs. 5.1% in the previous quarter's fourth quarter was also worse than the 6.9% drop.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking for the US economy to release data on the housing market with the reading of the Construction Starts Index and Construction Permits for May, where we expect to see about 1,290 thousand building permits against 0.6% at 1,296K. April, as initial homes may show stability stabilizing little changed at 1,235,000 homes versus a 5.7% drop in April.

This comes in line with the launch of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington, which is expected to keep the interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth meeting in a row, as markets look to reveal the Commission's expectations for growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to To the future interest rates for the next three years and the forthcoming press conference of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD succeeded in achieving our awaited target at 0.6860 and breached it to confirm the short term extension of the downside wave, paving the way towards 0.6707 which is our next main target.

Therefore, we are awaiting further downside during the coming sessions, supported by the negative pressure formed by SMA 50, noting that stability below 0.6860 is a prerequisite for the continuation of the suggested decline.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.6750 and the resistance at 0.6860.

The general trend for today is bearish.

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