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July 2019

Gold analysis 12.07.2019

Gold futures rallied to resume their daily gains rallied yesterday after testing the highest since June 25, when it tested its highest since May 14, 2013 and is poised to resume its weekly gains and gain its seventh weekly gain in eight weeks amid a rebound The dollar index for the fourth session of the highest since June 19 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Friday by the Chinese economy and his counterpart the US economy.

Gold futures for August delivery rose 0.25% to currently trade at $ 1,409.70 per ounce from the opening at $ 1,406.20 an ounce, amid the US dollar index falling 0.11% to 96.97 compared to the opening at 97.08.

The markets are now looking at the Chinese economy, the world's largest metal consumer and the second largest economy in the world after the United States, to release trade data last month with the trade balance index released by China's General Administration of Customs, which could reflect a contraction of the surplus to 276 billion yuan Which is equivalent to $ 45.2 billion compared to 279 billion yuan, or $ 41.7 billion in May.

In the same vein, we followed Thursday the US President Donald Trump, through his Twitter through his official account on Twitter, expressed his country's disappointment with China, which did not meet the size of China. Procurement of US agricultural products promised earlier in the month.

On the other hand, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce yesterday also expressed Beijing's hopes that Washington will remove the restrictions on Huawei soon, explaining that both parties are trying to implement the commitments agreed by Chinese President Shi Jingping and his US counterpart during the events of the last G20, Talks on trade talks have yet to be discussed and China has been consistent in addressing its fundamental concerns.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to disclose the reading of the PPI, which is a preliminary index of inflationary pressures, which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.1%, unchanged from what it was in the previous reading for the month of May, and may appear The core reading of the index itself was 0.2% growth, unchanged from May.

In the same context, the PPI may slow growth to 1.6% from 1.8% in the previous annual reading for May, and the core annualized reading for the same index may show a slowdown in growth to 2.1% from 2.3% in May. Hours after inflation data was released last month, with the consumer price index reading released on Thursday surpassing expectations.

Otherwise, we also followed yesterday the second and last half of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, hours after he gave his first half of his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee last Wednesday, completing his half- Annual policy on monetary policy before the US Congress.

We note that Powell's testimony has reinforced market speculation that Fed monetary policy makers will cut federal funds at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for July 30-31, Minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, which in turn supported cuts in interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of the month.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold traded negatively yesterday to test the pivotal support at 1400.30, as it maintained its stability above it, noting that Stochastic is providing a positive cross signal now, waiting for the price to resume the expected bullish trend for the coming period, which has its first target at 1438.90.

Therefore, we will continue to tilt the upside move for today, unless the level of 1400.30 is broken and the daily closing below it.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1390.00 and resistance at 1430.00.

The general trend for today is bullish.

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