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Gold Analysis 14.08.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the second consecutive session from the highest since April 12, 2013, ignoring the decline of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them following the developments and economic data that followed from the economy China is the world's largest consumer of metals and on the eve of economic developments and data expected Wednesday from the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for December 15 delivery rose 0.09% to trade at $ 1,500.00 an ounce, indicating a rebound from its highest in more than six years at $ 1,535.10 an ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,501.45 an ounce The US dollar index fell 0.01% to 97.78 compared to the opening at 97.79.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China released the annualized retail sales figure which showed growth slowed to 7.6% from 9.8% in June, worse than expectations for a slowdown of 8.6%. 4.8% vs. 6.3%, also worse than expected at 6.0%, while the unemployment rate showed a rise to 5.3% vs. 5.1% in June.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to reveal the import price index reading, which may reflect stability at zero levels against 0.9% decline in the previous reading for the month of June, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show the stability of the decline at 2.0% unchanged. Little about what they were in June.

This comes hours after the US Treasury Department announced the postponement of the date of activating the imposition of customs tariffs on US imports of some Chinese goods until December 15 next, which was supposed to enter into force at the beginning of next month. The Chinese side was constructive, and US President Donald Trump commented yesterday on the postponement decision that it aims to support shopping in the Christmas holiday season.

Trump also noted Tuesday that China wants to make progress in the trade talks, and that Beijing intends to buy more American products, while addressing the situation in Hong Kong difficult, but he thinks it can be resolved, and said that many countries are manipulating the value of their currencies, Otherwise, some of the report also mentioned yesterday that Trump had demanded that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe make his country buy large quantities of US agricultural products.

Technical Analysis

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level managed to stop the strong decline witnessed by the price of gold yesterday, starting attempts to overcome the resistance level located at 1503.25, noting that Stochastic is showing positive signs that await the price to achieve the required breach and then resume the main bullish trend.

Thereby, we will maintain our bullish bias on the condition that we hold above 1483.60, noting that our next major target is 1560.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1485.00 support and 1530.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

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