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Gold Analysis 09.10.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the sixth session in seven sessions from the lowest since August 4 amid the resumption of the dollar index rebound from the highest since May 12, 2017 according to the inverse relationship between them On the eve of economic developments and data expected on Wednesday by the US economy, including the speech of the Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Kansas City and with the pricing of markets for trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Morning gold futures for December delivery rose 0.20% to trade at $ 1508.49 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1506.45 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.08 compared to the opening at 99.09.

Investors are looking ahead to the US economy, which is expected to show a rise in employment and turnover, which could reflect a rise to 7.35 million from 7.22 million in July. Unemployment fell to its lowest since December 1969 to 3.5% compared to the previous reading and expectations of 3.7%.

In the same vein, we also followed last weekend's median hourly earnings steady at zero versus 0.4% growth in August, worse than expectations of 0.3%, while the non-farm payrolls showed a slowdown. The pace of job creation was 136k jobs compared to 168k jobs added in August, also worse than expectations for 145k jobs added.

Markets are also looking to reveal the final wholesale inventories figure, which could show growth at 0.4%, unchanged from the initial reading for August and 0.2% in July, before we see Fed Governor Jerome Powell and the committee member. Federal Open Market and Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George at a panel discussion at the Federal Reserve listens.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes were released on September 17-18, in which the Federal Funds rate was cut for the second time in a row by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2.00%. It was in line with expectations, with the Commission's expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment as well as the future interest rates for the next three years revealed.

On the other hand, we followed last Monday evening the announcement of the US Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 20 Chinese public security offices and eight Chinese companies to the blacklist for violations of human rights and Muslims of Igor, before the US administration put on Tuesday a visa ban on Chinese officials linked to the mass detention of the Muslim Uighur minority In Xinjiang.

In contrast, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said yesterday that the United States should "stop interfering" in the country's internal affairs and "remove" relevant entities from the list "as soon as possible". The trade tensions between the world's two largest economies come hours before the launch. A new round of high-level trade talks between the United States and China will be held in Washington on Thursday and Friday.

Earlier this week, China confirmed that Vice Premier Liu Hu and Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Yi Gang will travel to Washington for the October 10-11 talks. The US administration recently raised its tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion to 30 percent from 25 percent by 15 this month.

In the same vein, we followed yesterday US President Donald Trump expressed that there is a good chance to make a real trade agreement from China, explaining his belief that the high-level Chinese delegation came to reach an agreement, adding that his country does not favor a partial agreement with China, with Turning to the United States wants a humanitarian solution to what is happening in Hong Kong.

US President Trump also noted that he believes his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping can find a proper solution to the Hong Kong protests, though he said that if something bad happens in Hong Kong, trade talks between Washington and Beijing could be adversely affected, adding that Chinese import tariffs His country will rise on October 15 if no progress is made in the forthcoming trade negotiations between the two sides.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold provided positive trading yesterday to settle above the $ 1500.00 barrier, and moving above SMA 50 is a positive factor that may contribute to the price to achieve further gains, but we note that the stochastic indicator shows clear negative signs, forming negative pressure against the price.

Consequently, the contradiction between technical factors still exists, and the price needs to break the support 1485.00 or breach the resistance 1520.00 to determine its next destination more accurately, noting that a break above this resistance will lead the price to restore the main bullish trend and achieve positive targets starting at 1555.00, while breaking the support will press On the price for further bearish correction, whose next target is at 1447.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1485.00 support and 1525.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.

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