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AUD analysis 14.02.2020

The Australian dollar fell slightly in today's trading and yesterday, following comments by Central Bank President Philip Low on monetary policy.

"Lu" explained in press statements that the Australian economy is already paying the price of climate change and is being seriously affected.

"Lu" indicated that he expected the policy of low interest rates to continue, perhaps for years, in light of the continuing pressures on the Australian economy.

The head of the central bank also warned of the escalating household debt in the country and its severe negative impact on the Australian economy.

As for the "Corona" virus, the Chinese government said that the number of deaths from the virus rose to more than 1,360 people, while nearly sixty thousand others were infected, and Japan announced the first death of the virus on its soil for a woman over the age of eighty years.

In terms of trading, the Australian dollar fell against the US currency 0.1% to 0.6712, and recorded the highest price today at 0.6730 and the lowest price at 0.6709.

On the other hand, investors are looking to the US economy to reveal the retail sales reading, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the United States, and that may reflect the stability of growth at 0.3%, little changed from the previous reading of the month December, while a substantial reading of the same indicator may show a slowdown in growth to 0.3% versus 0.7% in December.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the import price index, which may explain a 0.2% decline against a rise of 0.3% in December, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show a slowdown in the pace of growth to 0.1% versus 0.5%, before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data For the largest industrialized country in the world with the release of the industrial production index, which may reflect a decline in the decline to 0.2% compared to 0.3% in December.

In the same context, the reading of the energy utilization index may show a decrease to 76.9% compared to 77.0% in December, before we witness the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence, which may show a widening of the value to 99.5 compared to 99.8 in December. Last January, coinciding with the release of the business inventories reading, which may explain an increase of 0.1% compared to a decline of 0.2% last November.

To the talk of Federal Open Market Committee member and President of the Federal Reserve Cleveland Bank Loretta Mester about payment updates at the University of South Florida in Sarasota, and this comes hours after the activities of the semi-annual certification of the Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell about monetary policy before each of the Financial Services Committee In the House of Representatives last Tuesday and the Banking Committee in the Senate last Wednesday.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar shows weak trading since yesterday, and maintains its stability below the level of 0.6754, which keeps the bearish trend scenario in place for the coming period, supported by the EMA50, noting that our targets start at 0.6670 and extend to 0.6560 after crossing the previous level.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6670 support and 0.6755 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

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