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EUR analysis 25.02.2020

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range slanting upward during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the fourth session from the lowest since the second half of April 2017 against the US dollar on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday by the largest economies of the euro area Germany and the American economy the largest economy In the world, which includes the talk of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 05:18 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 1.0860 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.0854 after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.0868, while achieving the lowest at 1.0845.

The markets are looking to Germany to reveal the end reading of the fourth quarter GDP, which may reflect the stability of stability at zero levels, little changed from the previous initial reading and against 0.1% growth in the last third quarter, as the annual final reading of the same indicator shows the stability of growth at 0.4 %, And the seasonally adjusted annual final reading of the index may show stability at 0.3%.

Other than that, we followed at the beginning of the week, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed the weak chances of reaching a trade agreement with Britain by the end of the year, explaining that negotiations on fishing areas with Britain may be very complicated, adding that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very difficult in Negotiations with the European Union and trying to get the advantages of access to European markets, which increases the uncertainty about reaching a trade agreement.

In another context, yesterday, French Finance Minister Bruno Lemerre also mentioned that the Corona virus had a negative impact on the tourism sector in his country, explaining that the number of tourists decreased between 30% to 40% as a result of the spread of the coronavirus, with his statement that this decline will be It has a negative impact on the French economy, the second largest economy in the eurozone, especially that France hosts 2.7 million Chinese visitors annually, and that this figure is expected to drop significantly this year.

Looking at Italy, the third largest economy in the euro area, yesterday it announced more than 130 new cases infected with Corona virus, and that came after its cancellation during the past weekend of some public events, including the Venice Festival because of the high number of people infected with the deadly virus, and in the same context, we followed Also during the weekend, Austria stopped a train coming to it from Italy due to the suspicion that two of its passengers were infected with coronavirus.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to reveal the housing market data with the release of the house price index reading, which may show accelerated growth to 0.4% compared to 0.2% last November, and showed the annual reading of the S&P house price index as well Growth accelerated to 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior annual reading for November.

This comes before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Committee and Chairman of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Kaplan at the Kansas City Real Estate Seminar, and before the release of the consumer confidence index, which may appear widening to 132.6 compared to 131.6 last January, in conjunction with the disclosure of industrial sector data from For the largest industrialized country in the world with the release of the Richmond Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the narrowing of the expansion to 10 compared to 20 in January.

Up to the talk of Fed member and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Richard Clarda about the economic and political monetary expectations at the annual conference of the National Association for Business Policy in Washington, and this comes amid the aspiration to reveal, after tomorrow, Thursday, the initial reading of the United States GDP for the first quarter, which may appear The growth rate of the largest economy in the world accelerated to 2.2% compared to 2.1% in the fourth quarter.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar continues to fluctuate around the level of 1.0860 and maintains the stability of the daily closing below it, which keeps the downside scenario active and effective for the coming period, supported by the stochastic loss of positive momentum and reaching the overbought areas, waiting for the price stimulus to resume negative trades to head towards our goals That starts at 1.0760 and extends to 1.0680.

On the other hand, it should be noted that breaching 1.0860 and holding above it will open the door for intraday gains, whose targets begin testing the 1.1050 areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0780 support and 1.0900 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

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