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AUDUSD analysis 16.09.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to rise during the Asian session, to witness its retracement to the fifth session in six sessions from the lowest since August 26 against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that they followed on the Australian economy and on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Wednesday, before The US economy, which includes the proceedings of the FOMC meeting, and in anticipation of the press conference to be held by Fed Governor Jerome Powell later.


At exactly 03:46 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.21% to 0.7317 levels compared to opening levels at 0.7302, after the pair achieved its highest level during the session's trading at 0.7319, while the lowest level is at 0.7288.


The Australian economy followed up the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the new home sales index, which showed a 14.4% decline compared to a 64.4% rise in July, contrary to expectations that indicated an acceleration of growth to 79.6%, and this came before we see the release of the reading. Leading indicators by the Melbourne Institute showed that growth accelerated to 0.5%, in line with expectations, versus 0.1% in the previous reading for July.


On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the largest economy in the world, to reveal a reading of retail sales, which represents about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US GDP, and which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 1.1% compared to 7.5% in July. In July, the core reading of the retail sales index may also show growth slowing to 1.0% from 1.9% in July.


This comes before the largest industrial country in the world witnesses the disclosure of industrial sector data with the release of the final reading of the wholesale inventories index, which may show a 0.2% rise compared to a 1.1% decline last June, coinciding with the disclosure of housing market data with the release of The housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders may reflect stability at a value of 78 this September.


This coincides with the proceedings of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting September 15-16 via satellite in Washington, during which it is expected that the short-term reference rates for the fifth meeting in a row will be kept between zero and 0.25%, and the expectations of the members of the committee are revealed. Federal Reserve rates of growth, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.


Later today, markets are looking forward to the activities of the upcoming press conference of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, which he will hold half an hour after the end of the meeting to comment on the decisions of the committee that recently adopted several stimulus programs to support the economy in the face of the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, and it is mentioned that Powell recently announced the adoption of Fed to new inflation policy and average targeting of 2% inflation for some time.

Technical analysis


The Australian dollar versus the US dollar stabilizes trading above the support of the ascending channel, and starts today with a slight bullish slope, supporting the continuation of the expected bullish trend scenario in the intraday and short term, which depends on stability above 0.7260, reminding you that our next main target is at 0.7413.


The expected trading range for today is between 0.7280 support and 0.7380 resistance.


The expected general trend for today: Bullish.

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