years on the market

Analytic reviews

Reviews by date:

October 2012

 
AUDUSD
 
News background:
Pair gets support against a possible surge in inflation expectations and a better market sentiment.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the upper limit and lower Bollinger Bands MA 5 and MA 21. If the pair to stay ...
Read more...
 
AUDUSD
 
News background:
Pair gets support against a possible surge in inflation expectations and a better market sentiment.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the upper limit and lower Bollinger Bands MA 5 and MA 21. If the pair to stay above 1.0255 level, it has the potential to short-term growth of 1.0375.
Oscillator Stoch. points to the possibility of continued growth. The RSI also shows the potential of growth of pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a pair for any roll back down to the local to 1.0375.
 
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

Hide

 
Today, the market's attention is focused on data from the US ...
 
Data from the "beige book" was published last night and stated in general slow but steady recovery of the US economy. It was noted that for the first time since 2009, the unemployment rate fell to 7 ...
Read more...
 
Today, the market's attention is focused on data from the US ...
 
Data from the "beige book" was published last night and stated in general slow but steady recovery of the US economy. It was noted that for the first time since 2009, the unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September, and in accordance with these ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 points last month compared to its August value 49.6 points.
 
Information from the "beige book" is encouraging and amid upcoming stabilize the situation in Europe shows that, perhaps, the world economy is already at the lowest point of its fall. Anyway, yesterday's news from Europe indicate that possibility.
 
European banks are starting to change their attitude to the financial market of Portugal, pointing out that the economy is starting to act normal measures of economic regulation, and not anti-crisis measures. This shows the situation in Portugal is changing for the better and are following it, it will start to change in other countries affected by the debt crisis.
 
One can say that the anti-crisis measures taken in the eurozone, are beginning to bear fruit.
 
Today's data from Australia continue to point to a growing problem. The economic slowdown in China amid European first problems already starts to really affect the Australian economy. The rise in unemployment to the level of 5.4% can not please, but, moreover, the average level of expected inflation, according to the survey Melbourne Institute, has grown this month and accounted for 2.6%, but is still within the target corridor set by the Reserve Bank of Australia is 2-3%.
 
Overall, the ongoing correction in the currency market indicates that the players took a wait ahead of elections in the US, as well as income market liquidity program QE 3.
 
Today we should pay attention to the statistics from the US.
 
Statistics for today:
Moscow time
11:30 U.S. FOMC Statement member Janet Yellen
Publication 12.00 Eurozone ECB monthly bulletin
16.30 Canada trade balance in August n / a; -1,7 billion; -2.3 billion
16.30 Canada Price Index in the primary market in August n / a 0,2% m / m 0.1% m / m
16:30 US August trade balance n / a; -43,9 billion; -42.08 billion
16.30 US The number of applications for unemployment benefits last week 30.09-06.10 n / a; 370,000; 367,000
16.30 US Import prices in September n / a; 0,7% m / m, 0.7% y / y
18.00 of the members of the US FOMC Jeremy Stein
18:30 US natural gas reserves for the week 30.09-06.10 n / a; n / a; 77 billion cubic feet.
19.00 US Crude Oil Stocks this week 1.10-7.10 n / a; n / a; -0,5 million barrels.
22.00 US Federal budget balance September n / a; -4,0 billion; -190.5 billion
 
Sergei Kostenko
Hide

 
EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair came under pressure due to the aggravated situation around Greece, as well as all kinds of speculation about the economic situation in the euro area and the prospects for its recovery.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is ...
Read more...
 
EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair came under pressure due to the aggravated situation around Greece, as well as all kinds of speculation about the economic situation in the euro area and the prospects for its recovery.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the lower Bollinger and below the MA 5 and MA 21. If the pair to stay above 1.2835 level, it has the potential to short-term growth.
Oscillator Stoch. is oversold. RSI indicator points to the suspension to reduce vapors.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a pair from a local to 1.2940.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

Hide

 
Today, markets will continue to consolidate
 
European market shares finished trading on Friday amid growing of all good statistics on employment in the U.S., as well as reports of the ECB that it would buy large amounts of sovereign bonds of troubled countries in the euro area ...
Read more...
 
Today, markets will continue to consolidate
 
European market shares finished trading on Friday amid growing of all good statistics on employment in the U.S., as well as reports of the ECB that it would buy large amounts of sovereign bonds of troubled countries in the euro area for one to two months after starting the program OMT - " direct cash transactions "and then suspend buying for evaluation. According to M. Draghi's decision to start a program OMT inspired investors.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 107.34 (+2.84%). Shares of Barclays, Banco Santander and Societe Generale rose from 2.38% to 3.73%.
 
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,871.02 (+0.74%); DAX 30 - 7,397.87 (+1.27%); CAC 40 - 3,457.04 (+1.64%). Futures DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2506.50 (-0.16). European stock markets open in the red zone.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Friday at 1,111.65 (+1.03%).
 
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.74% (+0.000 points), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.52% (+0.074 points), and 10-year-old UK Government Bonds is 1.77% (+0.067 points).
 
Oil futures on the morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe's consolidated because of the weekend in the U.S..
Mark Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 111.44 (-0.52%) and the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 89.26 (-0.70%).
Gold futures morning at 1,773.40 (-0.42%), quotes copper at 373.10 (-1.24%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 307.62 (-0.91%).
 
In the currency market the dollar against major currencies grows amid low activity of investors because of the celebration of Columbus Day.
The dollar index ICE, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.61 (+0.22%).
   
Prediction of the day:
Today we do not expect significant changes in the market because of the weekend in the U.S..
 
Events today:
Moscow time
11.15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index in September n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.0% m / m
12.30 Eurozone investor confidence in the medium on October Sentix n / a; -20,6; -23,2
14.00 Germany Industrial production in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, 1.3% y / y
U.S. markets are closed due to the celebration of Columbus Day.
 
Sergei Kostenko
 

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

Hide

 
Spain will have to accept the help
 
Despite the fact that the Spanish authorities have resisted the proposal of three creditors to take financial aid, in the next 2 weeks Madrid will have to resort it. Assessing the overall picture taking shape in the minds of the leaders ...
Read more...
 
Spain will have to accept the help
 
Despite the fact that the Spanish authorities have resisted the proposal of three creditors to take financial aid, in the next 2 weeks Madrid will have to resort it. Assessing the overall picture taking shape in the minds of the leaders of the euro zone, the pressure on Spain will not only continue, but to grow, which means that euro zone leaders will not allow the inside of the monetary union of troubled countries remained a "troublemaker" calm because of which will be played permanently crisis in Europe.
 
Friday's employment data in the U.S. economy, despite its ambiguity, have had severe pressure on the U.S. dollar and it looks like this trend will continue. And today, because of the U.S. celebration of the Columbus Day, activity in the markets will be small and most likely will continue to consolidate.
 
Statistics today:
Moscow time
 
11.15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index in September n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.0% m / m
12.30 Eurozone investor confidence in the medium on October Sentix n / a; -20,6; -23,2
14.00 Germany Industrial production in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, 1.3% y / y
U.S. markets are closed due to the celebration of Columbus Day.
Sergei Kostenko
Hide

 
GBP/USD
 
The news background: 
Pair is consolidated after yesterday's convincing growth against the backdrop of the decision of Bank of England to left the rates at the same level as well as the amount of redemption of government bonds. If today the statistics from the U ...
Read more...
 
GBP/USD
 
The news background: 
Pair is consolidated after yesterday's convincing growth against the backdrop of the decision of Bank of England to left the rates at the same level as well as the amount of redemption of government bonds. If today the statistics from the U.S. will be positive, the pair can get good support.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the upper Bollinger and above MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. is overbought. The RSI indicates a weakening of growth of pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a couple of the likely short-term goal 1.6235, if the data on employment in the U.S. is not worse than expectations.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

Hide

 
Statistics from the USA is in the focus today
 
Minutes of the Fed meeting confirmed the determination of the Federal Reserve to conduct QE 3 and all other colleagues doubt the bulk of Bernanke and U.S. lawmakers agree with the beginning of the program and believe that ...
Read more...
 
Statistics from the USA is in the focus today
 
Minutes of the Fed meeting confirmed the determination of the Federal Reserve to conduct QE 3 and all other colleagues doubt the bulk of Bernanke and U.S. lawmakers agree with the beginning of the program and believe that it will be effective. 
In general, the Fed said about waiting for a "moderate growth in the next quarter, but the pace of increase for the period 2013-2015" years.
 
Against the background of the Fed meeting minutes and markets are already established tradition for the second time a positive answer to their publication. The American dollar has continued to fall, with a large total against the euro yesterday as ECB President Draghi M. inspired investors. He said that the ECB is ready to start at any time for redemption of debt securities of European problem countries outside the monetary union.
 
Mario Draghi reassured markets that the ECB is "quite an effective mechanism for the implementation" of the plan. Parameters of the scheme of redemption of government bonds were not announced at the press conference, but the single currency continues to rise on these expectations. In addition, investors continue to believe that Spain will still have to resort to financial aid, despite its opposition to this, it seems, the markets still make the Spaniards do it.
 
Today, the players' attention entirely on the statistics from the U.S.. Positive data clearly lead to a weaker dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
11.00 Switzerland foreign exchange reserves in September n / a; n / a; 418,4 billion francs
13.00 Eurozone Final data on changes in GDP Q2. 2012 n / a; -0,2% q / q, 0.2% q / q
Germany 14.00 Change in orders in industry in August n / a; -0,4% m / m and 0.5% m / m
Canada 16.30 Number of building permits in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, -2.3% m / m
16.30 Canada Changing the number of employed in September n / a; 11.900; 34.300
16.30 Canada unemployment rate in September n / a; 7,3%; 7,3%
16:30 U.S. Change in number of employees (excluding agriculture) September n / a; 111.000; 96.000
16.30 U.S. unemployment rate in September n / a; 8,2%; 8,1%
16:30 U.S. Change in average hourly wages in September n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.0% m / m
21.00 of the members of the U.S. FOMC E. Duke
23.00 Change of U.S. consumer credit in August n / a; 6,3 billion; -3.3 billion

Sergei Kostenko

Hide

 
Dollar will be under pressure today
 
Market situation remains tense. Spain's unwillingness to take advantage of financial aid, makes the situation worse and uncertain. And the expectation of weak corporate reports of American companies has put pressure on commodity assets and risk-appetite of investors. And this is happening ...
Read more...
 
Dollar will be under pressure today
 
Market situation remains tense. Spain's unwillingness to take advantage of financial aid, makes the situation worse and uncertain. And the expectation of weak corporate reports of American companies has put pressure on commodity assets and risk-appetite of investors. And this is happening despite the positive data on employment in the private sector, the U.S. from the company Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), which was better than expected. The number of jobs in September increased by 162,000. ISM service sector index for September also came out better than expected 55.1 points versus 53.2 points predicted value.
 
Statistics from the Eurozone has also proved to be somewhat better than expected, though, and in General remained quite sad. PMI from Eurozone service sector in September rose to 46.1 points from 46.0 points in August, the forecast of 46 points. PMI consolidated euro area, which includes data manufacturing sector in September rose to 46.1 points from 45.9 points a month earlier in the forecast 45.9 points.
 
But despite that investors continued to be cautious before the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week and the decision of the Bank of England and ECB interest rates. It can be assumed that the rates will remain the same. But the attention of market participants will focus on ECB President Draghi M., and publishing protocol Moments Fed, which will be published later in the evening.
 
On the foreign exchange market there was a slight weakening of the us dollar. It is obvious that investors expect that the statistics would not be worse than expected, and the minutes of the fed and the words Dredges are aspirational and on this background, the U.S. currency will continue to decline, and the attitude of investors to the risky game improve somewhat.
 
Statistics for today:
Moscow time
 
Volume 15.00 UK asset purchase by the Bank of England, n / a; n / a; 375 billion pounds
15.00 UK decision of the Bank of England's interest rate n / a; 0,50%; 0,50%
during the day UK Statement on the interest rate the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
15.30 The number of planned layoffs USA (from Challenger) September n / a; n / a; -36,9% y / y
15.45 Eurozone ECB's decision on interest rates n / a; 0,75%; 0,75%
16.30 Eurozone ECB press conference
16.30 U.S. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits 24.09-30.09 n / a; 371.000; 359.000
18.00 Canada Business Index from September Ivey n / a; 59,0; 62,5
18.00 U.S. volume of industrial orders in August n / a; -4,1% m / m and 2.8% m / m
18.30 Change in U.S. natural gas reserves 24.09-30.09 n / a; n / a; 80 billion cubic meters. ft.
21.30 Canada's Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada T.Maklema
22.00 U.S. publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting
 
Sergei Kostenko
 

 

Hide

 
It seems that Australian dollar will continue its free fall
 
After the fateful decision of RBA to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% points to the level of 3.5% of the Australian currency continued its decline against their counterparts to four-week low. 
This decline ...
Read more...
 
It seems that Australian dollar will continue its free fall
 
After the fateful decision of RBA to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% points to the level of 3.5% of the Australian currency continued its decline against their counterparts to four-week low. 
This decline is primarily due to the probability of a further decline in interest rates and the change in the economic situation in China, to which Australia is in a close trade relations.
Further weakening of the Chinese economy may lead to a cycle of interest rate cuts RBA.
 
Activity in the services sector in Australia in September, continued to shrink. According to the index of business activity in the services of the Australian Industry Group / Commonwealth Bank index fell by 0.5 points to 41.9 points. Value below 50 indicates a drop in activity.
The continuing stagnation in the economy, it seems, will continue to put pressure on the national currency and, possibly, can be expected to decline in the short term to the minimum values of the beginning of September.
The single currency is consolidating amid the ongoing "struggle" of the Spanish authorities to the pressure that is on them has a market, the rating agencies and the ECB, together with the European Stability Fund, forcing the resort to financial aid.
 
Hard savings plan is good in Spain and even too good, but the markets have doubts on this point, which results in ongoing since the middle of last week, the pair Eurodollar consolidation.
 
Today we should pay attention to the statistics on employment of ADP from the U.S. and the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector of the ISM. Good short-term statistics will pressure the U.S. dollar.
 
Statistics today:
Moscow time
12.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the service sector in September n / a; 46,0; 46,0
12.30 UK index of business activity in the service in September n / a; 53,1; 53,7
12.30 Change of UK mortgages are not used for the purchase or repair of houses Q2. 2012 n / a; -8,6 billion pounds -8.8 billion pounds
13.00 Eurozone retail sales in August n / a; 0,0% m / m, -0.2% m / m
16:15 U.S. Change the number of employees (excluding agriculture), according to ADP September n / a; 148.000; 201.000
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the ISM non-manufacturing sector in September n / a; 53,4; 53,7
18:30 U.S. Change oil 24.09-30.09 n / a; n / a; -2,4 million barrels.
 

Sergei Kostenko

Hide

 
Wall Street finished a successful quarter
 
The American stock market closed on Friday with a reduction but finished the 2nd quater positively .The decision to actively support the global monetary liquidity contributed to the growth of the Central Bank is the U.S. market, as investors in the ...
Read more...
 
Wall Street finished a successful quarter
 
The American stock market closed on Friday with a reduction but finished the 2nd quater positively .The decision to actively support the global monetary liquidity contributed to the growth of the Central Bank is the U.S. market, as investors in the global financial crisis, chose to park in the U.S. financial assets.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 49.58 (-0.36%). Among banking stocks were the largest decline of paper of Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Co. which fell from 0.76% to 1.56%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,437.13 (-0.36%); S & P 500 - 1,440.67 (-0.45%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,116.23 (-0.65%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,439.80 (+0.39%). U.S. markets will open with a slight increase.
 
Oil futures before the opening in New York continue to decline amid expectations of a prolonged global recession and the lack of real incentives for local growth.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 111.71 (-0.61%), the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 91.71 (-0.52%). Gold futures stood at 1,770.90 (-0.17%), quotes copper at 374.50 (-0.35).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1258.11 (-0.69%).
 
In the currency market, the dollar remains under pressure against the good data from Europe index procurement, which rose to 47.4 points from 44.7 points in Germany to 46.1 points from 45.1 points in the euro area. It seems the weakening dollar has more to do with the adjustment of investors' positions to Bernanke and the publication of statistics from the U.S..
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.86 (-0.21%).
   
Prediction of the day:
We should pay attention to the statistics from the U.S., as well as the speech of Bernanke. Very much will depend on it. The positive results of the first month of the new incentives can support markets and gave some pressure on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.30 Canada price index for natural resources to manufacturers in August n / a; 1,4% m / m and 0.9% m / m
16.30 Canada price index for manufactured goods in August n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.5% m / m
17.00 U.S. Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 51,5; 51,5
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from September ISM n / a; 49,8; 49,6
18.00 U.S. Expenditures for construction in August n / a; 0,6% m / m, -0.9% m / m
18.00 U.S. producer price index from September ISM n / a; 55,6; 54,0
20.00 U.S. President's speech FRB San Francisco J. Williams
20.30 Address by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
 
Sergei Kostenko
 

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

Hide

Choose your language