years on the market

Analytic reviews

Reviews by date:

October 2012

Events in Spain are dragging down the whole world economy
 
Spanish factor became a symbol of instability in the global crisis and replaced the Greece. 
The growth of protest moods and unwillingness of Madrid to have recourse to the financial support of the European Fund of stability and ...
Read more...
Events in Spain are dragging down the whole world economy
 
Spanish factor became a symbol of instability in the global crisis and replaced the Greece. 
The growth of protest moods and unwillingness of Madrid to have recourse to the financial support of the European Fund of stability and of the ECB, more and more destabilizing the situation.
An additional negative factors are the results of stress tests of national banks. "IFS audit" - independent audit showed that Spain's banking sector will require about 60 billion euros of additional funds to cope with the economic downturn. But thus the Spanish authorities have said they will ask for the help of banks, only 40 billion market participants believe that such aid is small and on this background, today the single currency continues to decline.
 
Despite evidence of an increase in business activity in the industry in China PMI in September from 49.2 to 49.8, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the problems in the Australian economy is continuing, which could lead to a reduction in business activity in the manufacturing sector. The business activity index fell from 1.2 points to 44.1 points. Value is below the level of 50 points, which shows the reduction of activity. A general picture of the economy could lead to further reduction in key interest rates.
Today investors will be focused on the speech Bernanke. Market participants want to hear the first results of a new program of quantitative easing. A major event of the week will be the publication of data on employment in the U.S., which will be published on Friday.
We can say in general that the picture of uncertainty will continue for some time yet and most likely, lateral trend in the forex market will continue.
 
Statistics for today:
Moscow time
Switzerland 11.15 Retail sales in August n / a; 4,1% y / y, 3.2% y / y
11.30 Switzerland Index of business activity from September SVME n / a; 47,6; 46,7
12.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 46,0; 46,0
12.30 UK index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 49,5; 49,5
12.30 UK change in total private lending in August n / a; 0,7 billion pounds, 0.9 billion pounds
12:30 UK M4 money supply August n / a; 0,7% m / m and 0.5% m / m
12.30 UK Number of approved applications for mortgage loan in August n / a; 50.000; 47.000
13.00 Eurozone unemployment rate in August n / a; 11,4%; 11,3%
16.30 Canada price index for natural resources to manufacturers in August n / a; 1,4% m / m and 0.9% m / m
16.30 Canada price index for manufactured goods in August n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.5% m / m
17.00 U.S. Final data on the index of business activity in the industry in September n / a; 51,5; 51,5
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from September ISM n / a; 49,8; 49,6
18.00 U.S. Expenditures for construction in August n / a; 0,6% m / m, -0.9% m / m
18.00 U.S. producer price index from September ISM n / a; 55,6; 54,0
20.00 U.S. President's speech in San Francisco Fed Dzh.Uilyamsa
20.30 U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speech

Sergei Kostenko

Hide

September 2012

 
A holy place is never empty
 
Spanish issue with great force swooped down on the world market, causing new concerns that the recession in the European economy burying the entire global economy. The growing political tension in Spain amid reluctance to resort to the financial assistance of the ...
Read more...
 
A holy place is never empty
 
Spanish issue with great force swooped down on the world market, causing new concerns that the recession in the European economy burying the entire global economy. The growing political tension in Spain amid reluctance to resort to the financial assistance of the European Stability Fund and the ECB finally plunged into depression and investors forced to sell risky assets. If until recently bogey instability was Greece, it took place successfully Pyrenees republic.
Spanish unwillingness to take the financial assistance is clear, as it will in fact took of independence in the financial area from Madrid, that's why the prime-minister eclared that he would not ask for help until government bonds is not significantly increased. But the markets heard it completely "worked" to the premier, returning yield on 10-year government bonds to a higher level of 6%. Which points to the fact that Madrid will have to take care and wear the yoke of iron grip IMF.
Today, all eyes will be on view in Spain for the next budget year, and the GDP forecast from the Spanish government for the next year. Today, market participants will be expected to publish the results of stress tests of independent Spanish banks.
Start a debate about the effectiveness of QE 3, and Spanish events overshadowed the Fed's actions, which led to a decrease in the yield of 10-year bonds to the level of 1.63%, which fully reflects the concerns of investors.
 
Against the background of the tumultuous events of recent days, investor activity has fallen markedly, and the U.S. dollar were encouraged to grow along with the Japanese yen. But if the situation will be stabilized around Spain, and statistics from the eurozone and the U.S. will not be worse than expected, it could lead to a local weakening of the U.S. dollar and the increase in short-term tendency of investors to the risky game.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
Germany 11.55 Changing the number of unemployed in August n / a; 10,000; 9,000
12.00 Eurozone M3 money supply August n / a; 3,3% y / y, 3.8% y / y
12.00 Eurozone private sector lending in August n / a; 0,1% y / y and 0.1% y / y
12.10 Eurozone business activity in the retail sector in September n / a; n / a; 44,4
12.30 UK Final figures for Q2 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; -0,5% q / q, -0.5% q / q
12.30 UK balance of payments Q2. 2012 n / a; -12,2 billion pounds -11.2 billion pounds
12.30 UK Revised data on business investment Q2. 2012 n / a; -1,5% q / q, 1.5% q / q
Basic index of 16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in August n / a; 0,2% m / m, -0.6% m / m
16.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week of September 16-22, n / a; 378,000; 382,000
16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in August n / a; -4,3% m / m, 4.1% y / y
16.30 U.S. Final figures for Q2 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; 1,7% q / q and 1.7% q / q
16.30 U.S. Final figures for Q2 GDP deflator. 2012 n / a; 1,6% q / q and 1.6% q / q
18.00 Outstanding U.S. home sales in August n / a; -0,7% m / m, 2.4% y / y
18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week September 16-22, n / a; n / a; 67 Bcf
 

Sergei Kostenko

Hide


AUD/USD
 
News background:
The pair continues to remain under pressure amid falling commodity and commodity assets, and reducing the risk appetite of investors. Despite this sharp decline, we expect that it will be local.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the ...
Read more...

AUD/USD
 
News background:
The pair continues to remain under pressure amid falling commodity and commodity assets, and reducing the risk appetite of investors. Despite this sharp decline, we expect that it will be local.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the lower Bollinger and MA 5 and MA 21 if it drops below the level of 1.03115, then there is a possibility of further fall to 1.0250. If it overcomes the 1.0375 level, there is the possibility of its local growth from 1.0435.
Oscillator Stoch. is oversold. The RSI indicates the possibility of continuation of local reduction. pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a pair of short-term to 1.3185, if it bounces above 1.0375.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

Hide

 
The market expects the plan of salvation of Spain will be announced soon
 
European shares ended trading on Tuesday with a slight increase because of hopes that Spain will accept the financial assistance and because of the positive data from the U.S. consumer confidence, which came out ...
Read more...
 
The market expects the plan of salvation of Spain will be announced soon
 
European shares ended trading on Tuesday with a slight increase because of hopes that Spain will accept the financial assistance and because of the positive data from the U.S. consumer confidence, which came out better than expected. Overall, the picture in the market is still not unequivocal and unstable, causing a sharp rise of optimism and the same sharp drop him.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 108.64 (+0.97%). Shares of UniCredit, Societe Generale and Intesa Sanpaolo fell from 1.98% to 2.64%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,859.71 (+0.36%); DAX 30 - 3,513.81 (+0.47%); CAC 40 - 7,425.11 (+0.16%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,535.00 (+ -1.02%). Trading in Europe will open the fall of the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Tuesday at 1,119.79 (+0.36%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.67% (-0.001 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.58% (-0.057 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.82% (+0.005 NCP).
Oil futures in the morning before the opening of the European trading session down against yesterday's correction in the U.S. stock market and the fall in Asian markets. The main reason for the increased volatility in the market is the end of the fiscal year, which lead to chaos in the markets.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 109.77 (-0.62%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 90.67 (-0.77%).
Gold futures morning at 1,765.30 (-0.06%), quotes of copper at
373.95 (-0.51%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 306.71 (+0.25%).
 
In the currency market continues withdrawal of investors from risk. The U.S. dollar is supported because of persistence of Spain in adopting financial assistance. Tomorrow will be presented with a plan for Madrid to get out of the crisis. But in spite of this market has no faith in its success.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.88 (+0.33%).
 
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair may continue to decline to the level of 1.2800.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
during the day Germany Preliminary CPI September n / a; 0,0% m / m, 0.4% y / y
12.30 Review of UK credit conditions of the Bank of England
14.00 UK Realized sales according to CBI September n / a; 6, -3
18.00 U.S. sales in the primary market in August n / a; 381,000; 372,000
18.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the week September 16-22, n / a; n / a; 8,5 million barrels.
 
Sergei Kostenko

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

Hide

Greece again is in the spotlight

 

The Greek government continues to be between Scylla and Charybdis. On the one hand - it does not really want to reduce government spending, and on the other hand - they need to follow the economy plan. And now, once again, this bankrupt country expects ...
Read more...

Greece again is in the spotlight

 

The Greek government continues to be between Scylla and Charybdis. On the one hand - it does not really want to reduce government spending, and on the other hand - they need to follow the economy plan. And now, once again, this bankrupt country expects foreign financial assistance and asks for a delay to achieve budget targets for two years.
 
"We estimate the funding gap that could be created if we get a two-year extension in the 13-15 billion euros," - said Finance Minister Yannis Sturnaras.
 
Despite these problems the market has not reacted to the news, which, although contain potential problems. Investors essentially speaking, the write off of Athens and do not pay any attention to it almost as Spain continues to be the focus.
 
Market participants are now beginning to focus their attention on the upcoming statistics from the U.S. labor market. Markets are now becoming interested in the impact of the next program of quantitative easing from the Fed. Effectiveness of QE 3 may increase the tendency of investors to the risky game and contribute to the growth of risky assets.
 
With such prospects dollar is likely to be in short-term pressure. Eurodollar pair receive local support after a small correction down amid ECB's failed plan about the financial support of Spain.
 
Today we should pay attention to the statistics from the U.S.. If they are not worse than the forecast, it will support a short-term increase in sales of the dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
17.00 Eurozone ECB President Draghi
17.00 U.S. house price index from the S & P / CS July n / a; 1,5% y / y and 0.5% y / y
18.00 U.S. consumer confidence index from September NE n / a; 62,9; 60,6
18.00 U.S. house price index in July n / a; 0,3% m / m, 0.7% y / y
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in September n / a; -6; -9
21.30 Address by U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner
22.15 Presentation Canada board member of the Bank of Canada Lane
 
Sergei Kostenko
Hide

 
EUR/USD
 
News background:
Pair gets some support against the deposit auction of ECB and hope that Madrid will ask for help of three lenders.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair has a chance to grow up locally. It crosses the center line ...
Read more...
 
EUR/USD
 
News background:
Pair gets some support against the deposit auction of ECB and hope that Madrid will ask for help of three lenders.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair has a chance to grow up locally. It crosses the center line of the Bollinger and has already passed the MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. demonstrates the growth of the pair up. The RSI also provides a signal to the local growth.
 
 
Trading recommendations.
Buy a pair of short-term to 1.3185.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

Hide


Wall Street will try to grow up today...

 

The U.S. stock market ended trading on Monday with a reduction because of waiting for the results of the first month of the incentive programs, unimpressive prediction of Caterpillar and weak data on the business climate in Germany.
American BKX ...
Read more...


Wall Street will try to grow up today...

 

The U.S. stock market ended trading on Monday with a reduction because of waiting for the results of the first month of the incentive programs, unimpressive prediction of Caterpillar and weak data on the business climate in Germany.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 50.42 (+0.40%). Shares of companies ABCB.OQ, Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co grew from 0.23% to 0.86%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,558.92 (-0.15%); S & P 500 - 1,456.89 (-0.22%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,160.78 (-0.60%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,452.90 (+0.10%). U.S. markets open neutral.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York continues to grow up on the background of the next wave of rising tensions with Iran and the statement of the Chinese authorities that their monetary policy will remain soft.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 110.93 (+1.01%), U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 92.80 (+0.94%). Gold futures stood at 1,762.80 (-0.85%), quotes copper at 375.95 (+0.75).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1276.97 (-0.34%).
In the currency market, the single currency has ceased to decline and growing up on the background of the auction of the European Central Bank's weekly deposits. Prior to that, the euro was under pressure as a whole because of the uncertainty associated with the plan of salvation ECB Spain.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.54 (-0.05%).
 
Prediction of the day:
Amid expectations that Spain will accept the ECB's rescue plan EURUSD can locally jump to the level of 1.3060.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
17.00 Eurozone ECB President Draghi
17.00 U.S. house price index from the S & P / CS July n / a; 1,5% y / y and 0.5% y / y
18.00 U.S. consumer confidence index from September NE n / a; 62,9; 60,6
18.00 U.S. house price index in July n / a; 0,3% m / m, 0.7% y / y
18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in September n / a; -6; -9
21.30 Address by U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner
22.15 Presentation Canada board member of the Bank of Canada Lane
 
Sergei Kostenko
 
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
Hide

 
Wall Street continues to consolidate
 
The U.S. stock market closed mixed Friday amid fixing, arrived in anticipation of the end of the financial year in the U.S. and new negative stories, spin around Spain and Greece. European debt crisis once again came out not the foreground ...
Read more...
 
Wall Street continues to consolidate
 
The U.S. stock market closed mixed Friday amid fixing, arrived in anticipation of the end of the financial year in the U.S. and new negative stories, spin around Spain and Greece. European debt crisis once again came out not the foreground and has a negative impact on investor sentiment.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 50.22 (-0.46%). Shares of companies Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Bank of America Corp and JPMorgan Chase & Co lost between 0.77% to 0.90%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,579.47 (-0.13%); S & P 500 - 1,460.15 (-0.01%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,179.96 (+0.13%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,446.40 (-0.38%). U.S. markets will open with a reduction.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York continued to decline after the statements of Chinese officials that the markets should not expect further easing of monetary policy.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 110.10 (-1.20%), the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 91.95 (-1.02%). Gold futures stood at 1,762.80 (-0.85%), quotes copper at 372.80 (-1.61).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1281.32 (+0.05%).
In the currency market correction continues with the growth of the U.S. dollar due to the Spanish and Greek history and also the dollar weakened significantly against other major currencies except the yen, which naturally compensated by the European news. Overall, the couple has another opportunity to grow up on a background of the results of the first month QE 3.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.73 (+0.42%).
 
Prediction of the day:
Pair EURUSD continues to decline in short term amid weak statistics from the Institute of the German IFO. Business climate index fell in September, reaching the level of 101.4 points vs. 102.3 points. Pair broke important support level 1.2940 and against this background can adjust to the level of 1.2825. From which there is a possibility of local growth of the pair.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
23.00 Canada Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney
23.30 U.S. FOMC Statement member John Williams
 
Sergei Kostenko

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

Hide

 
Today, the markets will continue correction
 
European shares ended the week mixed, fully recouping the Fed's decision to launch new incentives and awaitin if Spain will take the financial assistance from the three lenders. The uncertainty associated with the situation in Spain, puts pressure on the European stock ...
Read more...
 
Today, the markets will continue correction
 
European shares ended the week mixed, fully recouping the Fed's decision to launch new incentives and awaitin if Spain will take the financial assistance from the three lenders. The uncertainty associated with the situation in Spain, puts pressure on the European stock market.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 109.05 (+2.39%). Shares of Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Bank Scotland Group and BBVA rose from 2.16% to 3.70%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,852.62 (-0.03%); DAX 30 - 7,451.62 (+0.84%); CAC 40 - 3,530.72 (+0.59%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,544.00 (-0.70%). Trading in Europe opened to reduce the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Friday at 1,119.46 (+0.40%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.74% (-0.012 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.60% (-0.033 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.83% (+0.037 NCP).
Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session on news of declining Chinese official that further easing of monetary policy, as it was in 2009 will not be.
Brent Oil (ICE) in the morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 110.54 (-0.80%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 92.06 (-0.90%).
Gold futures morning at 1,763.90 (-0.79%), quotes copper at 374.70 (-1.11%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 308.98 (+0.67%).
 
In the currency market correction continues to strengthening the dollar. Spanish history does not allow market participants to calm down about the prospects for the local debt crisis. Besides the end of the financial year in the U.S. leads to high volatility in the markets.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.63 (+0.29%).
 
Prediction of the day:
If the EURUSD pair to stay above 1.2940 level, then there is a possibility that she brought to the level of 1.3300.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 Germany Ifo business climate indicator in September n / a; 102,6; 102,3
23.00 Canada Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney
23.30 U.S. FOMC Statement member John Williams
Sergei Kostenko
 
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
 

 

Hide


EUR/USD

News background:
The market is again in pessimism amid uncertainty about Spain and Greece. For this reason, the pair is still adjusted downwards. But the movement may be suspended if the bad data will be released today from the German Ifo business climate indicator for September.

Technical picture ...

Read more...


EUR/USD

News background:
The market is again in pessimism amid uncertainty about Spain and Greece. For this reason, the pair is still adjusted downwards. But the movement may be suspended if the bad data will be released today from the German Ifo business climate indicator for September.

Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair found support at 1.2940, from which it can bounce up against the good statistics. The pair is below the center Bollinger MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. shows the probability of a reversal pair up. The RSI also provides a signal to the local increase in the pair.


Trading recommendations. Buy a pair of short-term to 1.3060.

Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

Hide

Choose your language