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September 2012


Investors became pessimistic again...
 
World markets fully played out the idea of ​​quantitative easing in one or another form from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan and are back to the realization that the world economy is still in recession because of raging European debt crisis ...
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Investors became pessimistic again...
 
World markets fully played out the idea of ​​quantitative easing in one or another form from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan and are back to the realization that the world economy is still in recession because of raging European debt crisis, which is already evident for a long time will be delayed. The World Trade Organization (WTO) against this background lowered its forecast for growth in trade this year to 2.5%.
 
"The main reason for the slowdown is, of course, Europe" - said WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy. - "We also see that the slowing U.S., Japan is also in bad shape." (Bloomberg)
 
Persistence of Spain in adopting financial assistance from three lenders continues to negatively impact on investor sentiment, as the probability of new negative trends constantly hanging and do not give markets forget about it.
 
End of the financial year in the U.S. leads to an increase in volatility in the markets, which, obviously, will last until the end of the month. Moreover, market participants interested in the result of the first, if not the full, three months of QE from the Fed, which may also have an impact on the market.
 
In the currency market correction continues with strengthening of the U.S. dollar, but according to the dynamics of a pair of Eurodollar, players are not confident that you can continue to sell-wide pair. Couple quite grown in anticipation of stimulus from the ECB and the Fed, and from a technical point of view, any superficial correction is normal.
 
Commodity currencies have also continued to decline today due to the correction in the commodity market, which continues against the background of the authorities of the PRC that the stage loose monetary policy over. But knowing China policy should be aware that the mood there may change at any moment.
 
Today will be interesting data from Germany. Good statistics locally to support the euro.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 Germany Ifo business climate indicator in September n / a; 102,6; 102,3
23.00 Canada Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney
23.30 U.S. FOMC Statement member John Williams
 

Sergei Kostenko

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USD/CAD
 
News background:
If inflation data today will show its growth, it can support the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar due to expectations of growth of the interest rate. It is also necessary to consider the Fed initiatives, which will adversely affect the U.S ...
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USD/CAD
 
News background:
If inflation data today will show its growth, it can support the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar due to expectations of growth of the interest rate. It is also necessary to consider the Fed initiatives, which will adversely affect the U.S. dollar.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the lower Bollinger below MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. included in the zone pereprodzhannosti. The RSI indicates there is the prospect of local growth.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Sell ​​a couple of short-term to 0.9700.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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Today, the markets will be positive ...
 
European shares ended trading on Thursday with decline amid uncertainty whether Spain apply for financial aid to the three creditors. The uncertainty in this regard, has a negative impact on investor sentiment.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading ...
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Today, the markets will be positive ...
 
European shares ended trading on Thursday with decline amid uncertainty whether Spain apply for financial aid to the three creditors. The uncertainty in this regard, has a negative impact on investor sentiment.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 106.50 (-1.97%). Shares of BBVA, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo fell from 2.12% to 3.39%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,854.64 (-0.57%); DAX 30 - 3,509.92 (-0.10%); CAC 40 - 7,389.49 (-0.02%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,567.00 (+0.67%). Trading in Europe will open growth of the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 closed Wednesday at 1,114.97 (-0.13%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.79% (+0.022 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.57% (+0.046 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.80% (-0.047 NCP).
Oil futures  in the morning before the opening of the European trading session, continue to rise after a strong and sharp fall on Tuesday. Overall, while it is possible to expect continuation of growth of quotations on a small background program QE 3.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 110.44 (+0.37%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 93.13 (+0.76%).
Gold futures morning at 1,773.90 (+0.21%), quotes copper at 379.50 (+0.96%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 306.93 (-0.48%).
 
In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is under pressure against the backdrop of a small increase in optimism related to the possible effectiveness of incentives from the Federal Reserve and the expectation that Spain will ask for financial help after all and this is again stabilize the situation in Europe. For this reason, a couple of Eurodollar stopped its decline and commodity currencies were supported by higher prices for commodities and commodity markets.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.32 (-0.20%).
 
Prediction of the day:
If the EURUSD pair will stay above 1.2940 level, then there is a high probability that it will continue to rise to the level of 1.3350.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
11.30 Exit Switzerland's quarterly newsletter Swiss National Bank
12.30 UK public sector net borrowing in August UK n / a; 13,0 billion pounds -1.8 billion pounds
16.30 Canada Core CPI in August n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.1% m / m
16.30 Canada Consumer Price Index in August n / a; 0,4% m / m, -0.1% m / m
16.30 Canada wholesale sales volume in July n / a; -0,1% m / m, -0.1% m / m
20.40 U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President's speech D.Lokarta
 
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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USD/CAD
 
News background:
The sharp decline in crude oil prices had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. Speculative mood associated with a slowdown in economic growth in China and the statements of Saudi Arabia to increase oil production continues - all that supporting the pair, which may ...
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USD/CAD
 
News background:
The sharp decline in crude oil prices had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. Speculative mood associated with a slowdown in economic growth in China and the statements of Saudi Arabia to increase oil production continues - all that supporting the pair, which may result in local growth.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the upper Bollinger above MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. is in the overbought zone. The RSI indicates there is the prospect of local growth.
 
 
Trading recommendations. If the pair exceeds the level of 0.9800 and consolidate above it, buy it from the short to 0.9825.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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Wall Street took a wait-and-see position
 
The U.S. stock market closed mixed on Tuesday on expectations of results of the first actions the Fed aimed to buy mortgage-backed securities, as well as short-term government securities and weak statistics from the largest express delivery company  - the FedEx ...
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Wall Street took a wait-and-see position
 
The U.S. stock market closed mixed on Tuesday on expectations of results of the first actions the Fed aimed to buy mortgage-backed securities, as well as short-term government securities and weak statistics from the largest express delivery company  - the FedEx, whose shares fell by 3.06%.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 50.54 (-0.45%). Shares of companies Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc and Bank of America Corp fell from 0.02% to 0.75%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,564.64 (+0.09%); S & P 500 - 1,459.32 (-0.13%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,177.80 (-0.03%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,454.90 (+0.14%). U.S. Markets open in a small plus.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York began to decline, fully recouping from all the positive news from Japan about the decision of the Central Bank to increase the liquidity of the local market by 10 trillion yen. Quotes of oil continues to remain under pressure due to persistent rumors that China will no longer go to the easing of monetary policy, and that Saudi Arabia has increased oil production. An additional negative factor is the expectation that today's official data on U.S. crude stocks show their growth.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 110.91 (-1.01%), the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 94.87 (-0.44%). Gold futures stood at 1,771.00 (-0.01%), quotes copper at 379.90 (+0.32).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1288.66 (-0.56%).
In the currency market correction continues to strengthen against the U.S. dollar on Spanish history. Spain's reluctance to request financial assistance from three creditors leaves in limbo the normalization of debt markets troubled European countries.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.39 (+0.05%).
 
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair rolled back by 23% Fibonacci down, which is natural after such a long growth. But in spite of this, we continue to expect that after a couple of minor adjustments to the level of 1.3350 grows amid the results of the first month of the program of quantitative easing from the Fed.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
18.00 U.S. sales in the primary market in August n / a; 4,58 million, 4.47 million
18:30 U.S. Change oil 10.09-16.09 n / a; n / a; 2,0 million barrels.
 
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

 

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EUR/USD
 
News background:
The pair continues to be corrected slightly after strong growth in anticipation of the Fed decision. It has already rolled back by 23% Fibonacci, and if it can hold above the 1.3000 level, it can get the potential for local growth.
 
Technical ...
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EUR/USD
 
News background:
The pair continues to be corrected slightly after strong growth in anticipation of the Fed decision. It has already rolled back by 23% Fibonacci, and if it can hold above the 1.3000 level, it can get the potential for local growth.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the pair is in the lower Bollinger below MA 5 and MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. out of the oversold area. The RSI signals the continuation of the correction, but it shows its suspension.
 
 
Trading recommendations. If the pair will stay above 1.3000, we buy it from the local to 1.3350.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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AUD/USD
 
News background:
After growth amid the Fed's decision to start stimulating the economy great support got the commodity and commodity assets. For this reason, the couple can continue to grow within the existing medium-term trend.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple ...
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AUD/USD
 
News background:
After growth amid the Fed's decision to start stimulating the economy great support got the commodity and commodity assets. For this reason, the couple can continue to grow within the existing medium-term trend.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple has potential for growth after a correction. The price is for the Upper Bollinger, MA below 5 and above MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. is oversold. The RSI indicates the suspension of growth of pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. We buy from the local to 1.0680.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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"Celebration" in the markets will continue ...
 
After a rather unexpected Fed decision to start immediately stimulate the national economy the main beneficiaries will become the commodity markets and equity instruments of companies operating in these markets. Against this, even the news from Europe about Greece not puting down investors ...
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"Celebration" in the markets will continue ...
 
After a rather unexpected Fed decision to start immediately stimulate the national economy the main beneficiaries will become the commodity markets and equity instruments of companies operating in these markets. Against this, even the news from Europe about Greece not puting down investors brave mood. Markets were waiting for QE 3 for suck a long time and now they won’t give up on their "conquests".
Athens desire to be in debt forever by not paying them slowly starting to dissappear. Lenders do not want to stretch the payments for the debts of Greece for many years, and therefore the Greeks have only 2-3 weeks to start to pay bills and reduce government spendings.
The decision of the Spanish authorities not to take help from the European Stability Fund, again making uncertainty, but markets do not want to take care about these events, because in general they are already in the prices.
 
As for the growth prospects of the single currency, it is likely to be limited, but the commodity currencies will receive substantial support amid new stimulus from the Fed. Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars will be good to grow, supported by rising commodity and commodity markets.
In the meantime, local dollar will weaken on all fronts.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 euro area balance of payments in July n / a; 10,9 billion euros to 12.7 billion euros
13.00 Eurozone trade balance in July n / a; 10,2 billion euros, 10.5 billion euros
16.30 Canada Foreign purchases of securities in July n / a; 11,3 billion; -7.89 billion
16.30 U.S. index of business activity in the industry FBI in New York in September n / a; -1,9; -5,9
 

Sergei Kostenko

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Rally in global markets continues

 
European stock markets ended the week on a positive note because of the Fed's decision to begin an immediate stimulus. First of all, good support on this background received shares of mining companies Rio Tinto Plc, Xstrata and Anglo American Plc, which jumped ...
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Rally in global markets continues

 
European stock markets ended the week on a positive note because of the Fed's decision to begin an immediate stimulus. First of all, good support on this background received shares of mining companies Rio Tinto Plc, Xstrata and Anglo American Plc, which jumped from 6.59% to 9.17%.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 112.04 (+3.17%). Shares of BNP Paribas, Barclays Plc and Deutsche Bank AG increased from 4.39% to 5.21%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,915.55 (+1.64%); DAX 30 - 7,412.13 (+1.39%); CAC 40 - 3,581.58 (+2.27%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,582.00 (-0.31%). Trading in Europe with open reduction.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Friday at 1,120.15 (+1.25%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.86% (+0.019 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.71% (-0.001 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.97% (+0.150 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.79 (+0.018 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 5.02 (-0.006 NCP).
Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session continues to grow up after a strong rally late last week, the Fed's decision to start stimulating the economy.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 116.85 (+0.16%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 99.07 (+0.07%).
Gold futures morning at 1,777.40 (+0.27%), quotes copper at 380.05 (-0.83%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 320.92 (+1.09%).
 
In the currency market the dollar halted its decline after a strong weakening of the past week. Decisive actions the Fed had a powerful pressure on the U.S. dollar. The capacity of its local reduction has not yet been exhausted.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 78.80 (-0.06%).
 
Prediction of the day:
We expect that after a small correction EURUSD pair will grow to the level of 1.3355, while the Australian dollar to 1.0675.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 euro area balance of payments in July n / a; 10,9 billion euros to 12.7 billion euros
13.00 Eurozone trade balance in July n / a; 10,2 billion euros, 10.5 billion euros
16.30 Canada Foreign purchases of securities in July n / a; 11,3 billion; -7.89 billion
16.30 U.S. index of business activity in the industry FBI in New York in September n / a; -1,9; -5,9
 
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair continues to grow amid the Fed's decision to start an unlimited redemption of mortgages and bonds to change the situation on the national labor market.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple has potential for growth. The price ...
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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair continues to grow amid the Fed's decision to start an unlimited redemption of mortgages and bonds to change the situation on the national labor market.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple has potential for growth. The price is for the Upper Bollinger and above MA 5 and MA 21. But it seems that this growth will still be limited.
Oscillator Stoch. and the RSI are overbought.
 
 
Trading recommendations.
We buy from the local to 1.3183 if the pair consolidates above 1.3060.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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