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Reviews by date:

September 2012


AUD/USD
 
News background:
After growth amid the Fed's decision to start stimulating the economy great support got the commodity and commodity assets. For this reason, the couple can continue to grow within the existing medium-term trend.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple ...
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AUD/USD
 
News background:
After growth amid the Fed's decision to start stimulating the economy great support got the commodity and commodity assets. For this reason, the couple can continue to grow within the existing medium-term trend.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple has potential for growth after a correction. The price is for the Upper Bollinger, MA below 5 and above MA 21.
Oscillator Stoch. is oversold. The RSI indicates the suspension of growth of pair.
 
 
Trading recommendations. We buy from the local to 1.0680.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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"Celebration" in the markets will continue ...
 
After a rather unexpected Fed decision to start immediately stimulate the national economy the main beneficiaries will become the commodity markets and equity instruments of companies operating in these markets. Against this, even the news from Europe about Greece not puting down investors ...
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"Celebration" in the markets will continue ...
 
After a rather unexpected Fed decision to start immediately stimulate the national economy the main beneficiaries will become the commodity markets and equity instruments of companies operating in these markets. Against this, even the news from Europe about Greece not puting down investors brave mood. Markets were waiting for QE 3 for suck a long time and now they won’t give up on their "conquests".
Athens desire to be in debt forever by not paying them slowly starting to dissappear. Lenders do not want to stretch the payments for the debts of Greece for many years, and therefore the Greeks have only 2-3 weeks to start to pay bills and reduce government spendings.
The decision of the Spanish authorities not to take help from the European Stability Fund, again making uncertainty, but markets do not want to take care about these events, because in general they are already in the prices.
 
As for the growth prospects of the single currency, it is likely to be limited, but the commodity currencies will receive substantial support amid new stimulus from the Fed. Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars will be good to grow, supported by rising commodity and commodity markets.
In the meantime, local dollar will weaken on all fronts.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 euro area balance of payments in July n / a; 10,9 billion euros to 12.7 billion euros
13.00 Eurozone trade balance in July n / a; 10,2 billion euros, 10.5 billion euros
16.30 Canada Foreign purchases of securities in July n / a; 11,3 billion; -7.89 billion
16.30 U.S. index of business activity in the industry FBI in New York in September n / a; -1,9; -5,9
 

Sergei Kostenko

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Rally in global markets continues

 
European stock markets ended the week on a positive note because of the Fed's decision to begin an immediate stimulus. First of all, good support on this background received shares of mining companies Rio Tinto Plc, Xstrata and Anglo American Plc, which jumped ...
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Rally in global markets continues

 
European stock markets ended the week on a positive note because of the Fed's decision to begin an immediate stimulus. First of all, good support on this background received shares of mining companies Rio Tinto Plc, Xstrata and Anglo American Plc, which jumped from 6.59% to 9.17%.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 112.04 (+3.17%). Shares of BNP Paribas, Barclays Plc and Deutsche Bank AG increased from 4.39% to 5.21%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,915.55 (+1.64%); DAX 30 - 7,412.13 (+1.39%); CAC 40 - 3,581.58 (+2.27%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,582.00 (-0.31%). Trading in Europe with open reduction.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Friday at 1,120.15 (+1.25%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.86% (+0.019 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.71% (-0.001 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.97% (+0.150 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.79 (+0.018 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 5.02 (-0.006 NCP).
Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session continues to grow up after a strong rally late last week, the Fed's decision to start stimulating the economy.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 116.85 (+0.16%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 99.07 (+0.07%).
Gold futures morning at 1,777.40 (+0.27%), quotes copper at 380.05 (-0.83%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 320.92 (+1.09%).
 
In the currency market the dollar halted its decline after a strong weakening of the past week. Decisive actions the Fed had a powerful pressure on the U.S. dollar. The capacity of its local reduction has not yet been exhausted.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 78.80 (-0.06%).
 
Prediction of the day:
We expect that after a small correction EURUSD pair will grow to the level of 1.3355, while the Australian dollar to 1.0675.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 euro area balance of payments in July n / a; 10,9 billion euros to 12.7 billion euros
13.00 Eurozone trade balance in July n / a; 10,2 billion euros, 10.5 billion euros
16.30 Canada Foreign purchases of securities in July n / a; 11,3 billion; -7.89 billion
16.30 U.S. index of business activity in the industry FBI in New York in September n / a; -1,9; -5,9
 
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair continues to grow amid the Fed's decision to start an unlimited redemption of mortgages and bonds to change the situation on the national labor market.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple has potential for growth. The price ...
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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair continues to grow amid the Fed's decision to start an unlimited redemption of mortgages and bonds to change the situation on the national labor market.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a local couple has potential for growth. The price is for the Upper Bollinger and above MA 5 and MA 21. But it seems that this growth will still be limited.
Oscillator Stoch. and the RSI are overbought.
 
 
Trading recommendations.
We buy from the local to 1.3183 if the pair consolidates above 1.3060.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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"Hooray!" - Shouted the markets as a respond to the new incentives ...

U.S. Federal Reserve announced yesterday the new incentives to support the national economy. Feature of the new phase of quantitative easing is an unlimited redemption of mortgage securities in the amount of 40 billion dollars per month ...

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"Hooray!" - Shouted the markets as a respond to the new incentives ...

U.S. Federal Reserve announced yesterday the new incentives to support the national economy. Feature of the new phase of quantitative easing is an unlimited redemption of mortgage securities in the amount of 40 billion dollars per month, and the program "twist-2" will continue until the end of this year. Bernanke showed concerns about the problems of high level of unemployment, and this is one of the main reasons for the Fed to start QE 3.

"The situation with unemployment ... continues to cause serious concern - Bernanke said at a press conference after the Fed meeting. - While the economy is on track for moderate recovery, it is not growing fast enough to significantly reduce unemployment" . (Reuters)
 
What incentives will bring to the market? We can definately say that the commodity and commodity assets will win in this situation. Against this background, will receive good support. With regard to the single currency, its growth is likely to be be limited, since they themselves volumes QE 3 stretched out over time and is not as extensive as it was in the past. The ECB will also be "empty" of liquidity in financial markets, which, of course, is not allowed to continue runaway euro on the foreign exchange market.
In the meantime, local dollar will weaken on all fronts.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.30 Canada Industrial sales in July n / a; 0,5% m / m, -0.4% m / m
16.30 U.S. core consumer price index in August n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.1% m / m
Basic 16.30 U.S. retail sales in August n / a; 0,6% m / m and 0.8% m / m
16.30 U.S. retail sales in August n / a; 0,7% m / m and 0.8% m / m
16:30 U.S. consumer price index in August n / a; 0,5% m / m and 0.0% m / m
17.15 U.S. capacity utilization in August n / a; 79,4%; 79,3%
17.15 U.S. industrial production in August n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.6% m / m
17.55 U.S. Preliminary data on the index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in September n / a; 74,1; 74,3
17.55 U.S. Preliminary data on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan in September n / a; n / a; 3,6%
18.00 U.S. business inventories in July n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.1% m / m
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Market will continue to grow due to the Fed decision

European shares market closed mixed on Thursday pending the results of the Fed meeting. Some kind of uncertainty about whether the Fed will launch another round of quantitative easing, and what it would be like, forced the investors to ...

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Market will continue to grow due to the Fed decision

European shares market closed mixed on Thursday pending the results of the Fed meeting. Some kind of uncertainty about whether the Fed will launch another round of quantitative easing, and what it would be like, forced the investors to cut previously opened positions.

Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 108.60 (-2.12%). Shares of Intesa Sanpaolo, Societe Generale and UniCredit fell from 2.34% to 3.04%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,819.92 (+0.65%); DAX 30 - 7,310.32 (-0.45%); CAC 40 - 3,502.09 (-1.18%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior before the opening of trading in Europe is 2,591.00 (+1.81%). Trading in Europe opened with the strong growth.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Thursday at 1,106.27 (-0.16%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.75% (+0.030 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.60% (+0.079 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.82% (-0.016 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.60 (-0.034 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 4.96 (-0.050 NCP).
Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session after rising the Fed to start unlimited stimulate the national economy, which is supported primarily raw materials and commodity assets.
Brent Oil (ICE) in the morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 116.93 (+0.90%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 99.72 (+1.41%).
Gold futures morning at 1,777.00 (+0.28%), quotes copper at 379.40 (+2.26%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 317.45 (+0.55%).
 
In the currency market, the dollar continues to fall because of the decision of the Fed to stimulate the U.S. economy indefinitely.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 78.98 (-0.33%).
 
Prediction of the day:
After the Fed's monetary policy the dollar continues to decline against major currencies. On this background the short term the pair EURUSD has the potential to grow to the level of 1.3185.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
13.00 Eurozone consumer price index in August n / a; 2,6% y / y, 2.6% y / y
13.00 Eurozone core consumer price index in August n / a; 1,7% y / y and 1.7% y / y
13.00 Eurozone Employment Change Q2. 2012 n / a; -0,2% q / q, 0.2% q / q
16.30 Canada Industrial sales in July n / a; 0,5% m / m, -0.4% m / m
16.30 U.S. core consumer price index in August n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.1% m / m
Basic 16.30 U.S. retail sales in August n / a; 0,6% m / m and 0.8% m / m
16.30 U.S. retail sales in August n / a; 0,7% m / m and 0.8% m / m
16:30 U.S. consumer price index in August n / a; 0,5% m / m and 0.0% m / m
17.15 U.S. capacity utilization in August n / a; 79,4%; 79,3%
17.15 U.S. industrial production in August n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.6% m / m
17.55 U.S. Preliminary data on the index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in September n / a; 74,1; 74,3
17.55 U.S. Preliminary data on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan in September n / a; n / a; 3,6%
18.00 U.S. business inventories in July n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.1% m / m
 
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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Markets waiting for Bernanke’s words.
 
U.S. stock market finished trading with the growing today, hoping that the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a program to support the economy. The probability of this event is 50%, but market participants continues to believe in it ...
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Markets waiting for Bernanke’s words.
 
U.S. stock market finished trading with the growing today, hoping that the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a program to support the economy. The probability of this event is 50%, but market participants continues to believe in it.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 49.63 (+0.69%). Stocks of companies Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rose from 0.99% to 1.33%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,333.35 (+0.07%); S & P 500 - 1,436.56 (+0.21%); NASDAQ Comp. - 1,436.56 (+0.32%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,437.10 (-0.17%). U.S. Markets open in the red zone.
 
Oil futures before the opening of New York consolidated in anticipation of new U.S. economic stimulus from the Fed.
Futures of the Brent Oil (ICE) day at 116.20 (+0.21%), U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 97.20 (+0.20%). Gold futures stood at 1,733.70 (+0.00%), quotes copper at 368.75 (-0.14).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 49.63 (+0.27%).
In the foreign exchange market during the day the U.S. dollar continues to be under a little pressure on the expectation of the launch of new stimulus from the Fed.
 
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.66 (-0.08%).
 
Prediction of the day:
If there will be a signal that the Fed will begin a new economic stimulus measures, it will have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.30 Canada price index on the primary market in July n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.2% m / m
16.30 The level of capacity utilization Canada Q2. 2012 n / a; 81,1%; 80,7%
16:30 U.S. Producer Price Index in August n / a; 1,2% m / m, 0.3% y / y
16.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week 2-8 August n / a; 370,000; 365,000
Basic 16.30 U.S. producer price index in August n / a; 0,2% m / m, 0.4% y / y
18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week 2-8 August n / a; n / a; 28 billion cubic feet.
20:30 U.S. Fed's decision on interest rates in September n / a; <0.25%; <0.25%
22:00 U.S. Fed's publication of economic forecasts
22.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in August n / a; -157,1 billion; -69.6 billion
22.15 U.S. Fed Press Conference
 

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

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The news background:
The pair's growth paused in anticipation of the results of the fed meeting on monetary policy, and therefore there may be a slight correction of the pair to the level of 1.2815.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a pair rose and ...
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The news background:
The pair's growth paused in anticipation of the results of the fed meeting on monetary policy, and therefore there may be a slight correction of the pair to the level of 1.2815.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a pair rose and now it's locally overbought. The price is for the Upper Bollinger and above MA 5 and MA 21. It is possible that today before the Bernanke's speech pair will decline to the level of 1.2815, which is, according to the situation, will continue to grow.
 
Oscillator Stoch. came out of the overbought zone and points to the possibility of decline. The RSI exits from the overbought, confirming the Stoch signal.
 
 
Trading recommendations. We act according to the situation, depending on the decision of the Fed decision.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.
Analytical department of Grand Capital
 

 

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To be or not to be - new incentives from Fed?
 
Investors' opinions divided today in the question - whether Fed's will announce the new stimulus to support the economy or not. About 52% of the respondents (economists, traders and investors) believe that this is possible. But at the same ...
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To be or not to be - new incentives from Fed?
 
Investors' opinions divided today in the question - whether Fed's will announce the new stimulus to support the economy or not. About 52% of the respondents (economists, traders and investors) believe that this is possible. But at the same time, there is a lot of skeptics who believe that the Fed is not going to do this, and both of the groups has their valid arguments. But, in general, everybody agreed on the fact that the probability is also high, as its absence. 50 to 50 that's what investors expecting today in global financial markets.
As for our position, we believe that today there will be no strong signal from Bernanke. In such an important point, as the election of a new U.S. president, when all of the candidates are almost equal, the Fed will wait and even it will give a hint of some action, only with a delay before the new year.
In this situation the new data on applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. may be interesting . If the data will came out worse than expected, it could only confirm a steady trend in the deterioration of the situation, and that, of course, bring the possibility of another phase of quantitative easing.
At the moment, because of the Bernanke’s evening speech, there is no news and statistics which can do the actual impact. Investors will continue throughout the day to adjust their position, as we have pointed out above, the probability of new incentives is 50%.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
Publication 12.00 Eurozone ECB monthly bulletin
16.30 Canada price index on the primary market in July n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.2% m / m
16.30 The level of capacity utilization Canada Q2. 2012 n / a; 81,1%; 80,7%
16:30 U.S. Producer Price Index in August n / a; 1,2% m / m, 0.3% y / y
16.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week 2-8 August n / a; 370,000; 365,000
Basic 16.30 U.S. producer price index in August n / a; 0,2% m / m, 0.4% y / y
18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week 2-8 August n / a; n / a; 28 billion cubic feet.
20:30 U.S. Fed's decision on interest rates in September n / a; <0.25%; <0.25%
22:00 U.S. Fed's publication of economic forecasts
22.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in August n / a; -157,1 billion; -69.6 billion
22.15 U.S. Fed Press Conference
 

Sergei Kostenko

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Today everything the focused on the Fed's decision on monetary policy
 
European stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy, which will be announced today at 21.15 Moscow time. Constitutional Court's decision to approve the participation of Germany to stabilize and to ...
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Today everything the focused on the Fed's decision on monetary policy
 
European stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy, which will be announced today at 21.15 Moscow time. Constitutional Court's decision to approve the participation of Germany to stabilize and to support the European stock market. Growth leaders were banking stocks.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 110.95 (+1.19%). Shares of Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank Scotland Group rose from 1.64% to 3.78%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,782.08 (-0.17%); DAX 30 - 7,343.53 (+1.46%); CAC 40 - 3,543.79 (+0.18%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,566.00 (+0.04%). Trading in Europe will open neutral. 
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 closed Wednesday at 1,108.02 (+0.08%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.75% (-0.009 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.63% (+0.012 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.83% (+0.093 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.64 (+0.021 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 5.05 (+0.018 NCP).
Oil futures in the morning before the opening of the European trading session, practically does not changed pending to a decision by the Fed's monetary policy. If Bernanke will signal that the Fed will embark on new stimulus, it will support the oil quotes.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 115.88 (-0.07%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 97.06 (+0.05%).
Gold futures morning at 1,732.70 (-0.06%), quotes copper at 369.30 (+0.01%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 314.90 (+0.53%).
 
In the currency market the dollar going down against the European currencies with the exception of raw materials, which are adjusted against yesterday's data on U.S. crude stocks, which rose by 1.99 million barrels to 359,092 million barrels last week.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.59 (-0.17%).
 
Prediction of the day:
Today, all the attention to the Fed. If there would be a signal that the Fed will begin a new economic stimulus measures, it will have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
11.15 Switzerland Producer Price Index in August n / a; -0,2% m / m, -0.3% m / m
11:30 Switzerland Swiss National Bank's decision on interest rates in September n / a; <0.25%; <0.25%
Publication 12.00 Eurozone ECB monthly bulletin
16.30 Canada price index on the primary market in July n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.2% m / m
16.30 The level of capacity utilization Canada Q2. 2012 n / a; 81,1%; 80,7%
16:30 U.S. Producer Price Index in August n / a; 1,2% m / m, 0.3% y / y
16.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week 2-8 August n / a; 370,000; 365,000
Basic 16.30 U.S. producer price index in August n / a; 0,2% m / m, 0.4% y / y
18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week 2-8 August n / a; n / a; 28 billion cubic feet.
20:30 U.S. Fed's decision on interest rates in September n / a; <0.25%; <0.25%
22:00 U.S. Fed's publication of economic forecasts
22.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in August n / a; -157,1 billion; -69.6 billion
22.15 U.S. Fed Press Conference
 
Sergei Kostenko

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

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