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September 2012

 
All attention is focused on the FRC market meeting
 
The U.S. stock market ended trading Tuesday in positive territory pending the results of a two-day meeting of the Fed, which will announce its decision of monetary policy on Thursday. Negative statistics from the labor market in August ...
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All attention is focused on the FRC market meeting
 
The U.S. stock market ended trading Tuesday in positive territory pending the results of a two-day meeting of the Fed, which will announce its decision of monetary policy on Thursday. Negative statistics from the labor market in August allows investors to hope that Bernanke tomorrow will understand that the Fed will begin a new incentive measures, and continues to maintain that the U.S. stock market in the pre-crisis peak values.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 49.29 (+0.82%). Shares of companies JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc and Bank of America Co.vyrosli from 1.75% to 5.24%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,323.36 (+0.52%); S & P 500 - 1,433.56 (+0.31%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,104.53 (+0.02%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,435.50 (+0.34%). U.S. markets open growth.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York continues to grow in hopes of new stimulus from the Fed.
Futures of the Brent Oil (ICE) day at 116.06 (+0.57%), U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 97.48 (+0.33%). Gold futures are at 1250.95 (-0.75%), quotes copper at 369.20 (+1.29).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1263.91 (+1.04%).
In the foreign exchange market during the day the U.S. dollar continues to be under pressure due to the probability of launching new stimulus from the Fed. EURUSD pair has a chance to local growth if the Fed still will make it clear that the incentives will be launched this year.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.69 (-0.19%).
 
Prediction of the day:
Dollar will remain under pressure for a short term until the decision of Fed's monetary policy on will be announced.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.30 U.S. Import prices in August n / a; 1,4% m / m, -0.6% m / m
18.00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories July n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.2% m / m
18.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the week 02.08 avgustan / a; n / a; -7,4 million barrels.
 
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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News background:
Growth of the pair may continue today amid expectations of the Fed meeting with the possibility of launching the new incentives.

Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a pair rose sharply and now it's locally overbought. The price is for the Upper Bollinger and above ...

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News background:
Growth of the pair may continue today amid expectations of the Fed meeting with the possibility of launching the new incentives.

Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a pair rose sharply and now it's locally overbought. The price is for the Upper Bollinger and above MA 5 and MA 21. It is possible that today the new thrust up a little steam and will adjust if stay above 1.2817 level, there is the likelihood of limited growth up.
Oscillator Stoch. and the RSI are overbought.

 



Trading recommendations.
Buy a couple on the rebound down from a local to 1.2940.


Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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Markets are focused on the Fed meeting
 
Apparently, the Constitutional Court is not not interfering in todays ratification of ESM and Financial Covenant. If it will be approved, it will surely increase the confidence of investors in the German authorities and will show that the Germans still ready ...
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Markets are focused on the Fed meeting
 
Apparently, the Constitutional Court is not not interfering in todays ratification of ESM and Financial Covenant. If it will be approved, it will surely increase the confidence of investors in the German authorities and will show that the Germans still ready to fight the crisis, and not to sit with the expectation of everything to resolve by itself. Because of this the single currency is raising again in the foreign exchange market.
 
A two-day meeting of the Fed, the results of which will be known tomorrow is an additional supporting factor of propensity of investors to the risky game. Probability of the launching of new stimulus increases demand for 3-year U.S. government bonds, which indicates the possible prospects of increasing the term of the monetary authorities in 2015. And this in turn suggests that the Fed may actually go to a new program QE 3, the more recent data from the U.S. labor market is pushing her to do so. An additional factor that points to it, is the beginning of growth of yields on 10-year government bonds.
 
So, most likely, the Fed in line with the new stimulus package will stop the program Twist 2, which was sent to the preferred redemption of long-term bonds. And if indeed Bernanke will go to drastic measures, it will have a lot of pressure on the U.S. dollar and will have a standard growth of risky assets. First of all gold, silver and other commodities and commodity assets. The stock market will also receive support and revive the stock markets of developing countries.
 
Today we should pay attention to data from the UK and the eurozone.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.30 UK Changing the number of applications for unemployment benefits in August n / a; 100; -5.900
12.30 UK unemployment rate in July n / a; 8,0%; 8,0%
12.30 UK index of average wages in July n / a; 1,5% 3m / y and 1.6% 3m / y
13.00 Eurozone Industrial Production July n / a; 0,0% m / m, -0.6% m / m
13.00 UK's leading indicators index in July n / a; n / a; -0,3% m / m
15.00 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Broadbent
16.30 U.S. Import prices in August n / a; 1,4% m / m, -0.6% m / m
18.00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories July n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.2% m / m
18.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the Week 2-8 August n / a; n / a; -7,4 million barrels.
 

Sergei Kostenko

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The market continues to live on the expectations of the Fed meeting

European stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday in anticipation of the German court decision on the constitutionality of the ECB’s action on the purchase of the Bills of troubled eurozone countries, as well as the Committee on ...
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The market continues to live on the expectations of the Fed meeting

European stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday in anticipation of the German court decision on the constitutionality of the ECB’s action on the purchase of the Bills of troubled eurozone countries, as well as the Committee on the Federal Open Market of the USA. According to rumors on the market, most likely the German Constitutional Court would not object to the ECB.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 109.64 (+1.88%). Shares of UniCredit, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank rose 1.25% to 4.10%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,792.19 (-0.02%); DAX 30 - 7,310.11 (+1.34%); CAC 40 - 3,537.30 (+0.89%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,564.00 (+0.20%). Trading in Europe will open growth of the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Tuesday at 1,107.17 (+0.33%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.71% (+0.008 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.57% (+0.025 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.74% (+0.006 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.70 (-0.006 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 5.04 (-0.046 NCP).
Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session, grow, despite the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which pointed to the increase in oil inventories last week to 221,000 barrels to 359,018 million barrels. The main reason for the growth is the expectation of stimulus from the Fed.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 115.72 (+0.28%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 97.21 (+0.04%).
Gold futures morning at 1,739.20 (+0.25%), quotes copper at 369.05 (-0.18%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 314.90 (+0.53%).
 
In the currency market, the U.S. dollar keeps falling in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Despite the fact that the probability of launching new incentive is low, market participants do not exclude this possibility on a background of weak statistics from the U.S. labor market. If, indeed, such measures are taken, the growth of risky assets will only intensify.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.80 (-0.05%).
 
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair still can grow up to the level of 1.2940 on expectations of stimulus from the Fed.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.30 UK Changing the number of applications for unemployment benefits in August n / a; 100; -5.900
12.30 UK unemployment rate in July n / a; 8,0%; 8,0%
12.30 UK index of average wages in July n / a; 1,5% 3m / y and 1.6% 3m / y
13.00 Eurozone Industrial Production July n / a; 0,0% m / m, -0.6% m / m
13.00 UK's leading indicators index in July n / a; n / a; -0,3% m / m
15.00 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Broadbent
16.30 U.S. Import prices in August n / a; 1,4% m / m, -0.6% m / m
18.00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories July n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.2% m / m
18.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the Week 2-8 August n / a; n / a; -7,4 million barrels.
 
Sergei Kostenko

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

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Market will continue to consolidate before the Fed meeting
 
The U.S. stock market was closed on Monday in the red zone, continuing to fall on profit-taking before Fed’s decision on monetary policy. Despite the fact that of the low probability of statistics from the U.S. QE ...
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Market will continue to consolidate before the Fed meeting
 
The U.S. stock market was closed on Monday in the red zone, continuing to fall on profit-taking before Fed’s decision on monetary policy. Despite the fact that of the low probability of statistics from the U.S. QE 3 significantly increased, investors are hesitant to risk by buying risky assets.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 48.89 (-0.77%). Shares of companies JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Co. fell from 1.37% to 2.50%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,254.29 (-0.39%); S & P 500 - 1,429.08 (-0.61%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,104.02 (-1.03%).
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,429.50 (+0.22%). U.S. Markets open in positive territory.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York in the hope of growing new stimulus from the Fed.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 114.95 (+0.12%), U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.54 (+0.01%). Gold futures stood at 1,733.60 (+0.10%), quotes copper at 368.65 (-0.05%).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1250.95 (-0.75%).
In the currency market continues to consolidate small pending the outcome of the Fed meeting.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.18 (-0.20%).
 
Prediction of the day:
If at the Fed meeting will be decided on the new incentives, it will undoubtedly have a negative pressure on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.15 Canada Construction August n / a; 206,000; 209,000
16.30 Canada trade balance in July n / a; -1,5 billion kan.doll; -1.8 billion
16:30 U.S. July trade balance n / a; -44,2 billion; -42.9 billion.
18.00 U.S. economic optimism index IBD / TIPP September n / a; 47,3; 45,6
21.15 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Miles
 
Sergei Kostenko

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

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Markets are consolidating before the Fed meeting
 
Market participants expect the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market, which begins today. After the release of weak statistics to the U.S. labor market, which was released last Friday, the markets raised in the hope that ...
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Markets are consolidating before the Fed meeting
 
Market participants expect the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market, which begins today. After the release of weak statistics to the U.S. labor market, which was released last Friday, the markets raised in the hope that this meeting will still decided to launch new stimulus programs.
In the currency market for the second day is celebrated on the eve of the weak dynamics of the Fed meeting. Poor statistics of the United States not only increased the probability of a new phase of quantitative easing, but it makes it pretty likely. If Bernanke earlier said only that the Fed is ready at any time, if it is necessary "to enable the printing press," so tomorrow he can no longer be a subject to talk about. And this, of course, will support trade, commodities and stock markets. But the U.S. dollar will be under intense pressure and will turn back into the currency of funding, which will be beneficial to take to buy risky assets.
Today, the market situation remains generally calm. Players remain out of the purchases and sales of assets previously purchased.
Today we should pay attention to data on the trade balance. Negative data can have a local pressure on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.15 Canada Construction August n / a; 206,000; 209,000
16.30 Canada trade balance in July n / a; -1,5 billion kan.doll; -1.8 billion
16:30 U.S. July trade balance n / a; -44,2 billion; -42.9 billion.
18.00 U.S. economic optimism index IBD / TIPP September n / a; 47,3; 45,6
21.15 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Miles
 
Sergei Kostenko
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Today the market will keep correcting before the Fed meeting
 
European stocks market ended trading on Monday with a two-day decline in anticipation of the Fed meeting, which begins today. Since there is uncertainty about new incentives from the Federal Reserve, market participants do not want to risk ...
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Today the market will keep correcting before the Fed meeting
 
European stocks market ended trading on Monday with a two-day decline in anticipation of the Fed meeting, which begins today. Since there is uncertainty about new incentives from the Federal Reserve, market participants do not want to risk and fixed earlier profits on short-term rally.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 107.62 (+0.30%). Shares of BNP Paribas, UniCredit and Deutsche Bank rose from 0.38% to 1.56%.
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,793.20 (-0.03%); DAX 30 - 7,213.70 (-0.01%); CAC 40 - 3,506.05 (-0.37%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,511.00 (-0.79%). Trading in Europe opened to reduce the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Monday at 1,103.55 (-0.29%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.66% (+0.000 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.49% (-0.020 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.73% (+0.048 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.77 (+0.076 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 5.26 (+0.058 NCP).
Oil futures in the morning before the opening of the European trading session adjusted down on rumors from China about the fact that one of the successors of the country's leaders disappeared.
Brent Oil (ICE) in the morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 114.65 (-0.14%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.34 (-0.21%).
Gold futures morning at 1,731.70 (-0.01%), quotes copper at 365.75 (-0.84%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 313.24 (+0.50%).
 
Currency market continues to consolidating amid expectations of the results of the Fed meeting, which begins today.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.27 (-0.09%).
 
Prediction of the day:
If on the Fed meeting will be decided to make new incentives, this will surely have a negative pressure on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.30 UK trade balance in July n / a; -8,9 billion pounds -10.1 billion pounds
16.15 Canada Construction August n / a; 206,000; 209,000
16.30 Canada trade balance in July n / a; -1,5 billion kan.doll; -1.8 billion
16:30 U.S. July trade balance n / a; -44,2 billion; -42.9 billion.
18.00 U.S. economic optimism index IBD / TIPP September n / a; 47,3; 45,6
21.15 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Miles
 
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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Today the market is correcting before the Fed meeting
 
The U.S. stock market was closed on Friday on its maximum, but without any changes. The S & P 500 closed at a new maximum values since 2007. This increase was caused by the decision of the ECB ...
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Today the market is correcting before the Fed meeting
 
The U.S. stock market was closed on Friday on its maximum, but without any changes. The S & P 500 closed at a new maximum values since 2007. This increase was caused by the decision of the ECB in the end of the week to buy in unlimited amounts short-term bonds of Spain and Italy, if needed.
Growth leaders were banking stocks.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 49.27 (+1.57%). Stocks of JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Co. rose from 1.58% to 5.39%.
 
U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,306.64 (+0.11%); S & P 500 - 1,437.92 (+0.40%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,136.42 (+0.02%).
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,435.30 (-0.20%). U.S. Markets open in a small minus.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York traded without significant changes compared with the morning values. Market participants expect the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed's monetary policy.
Brent Oil futures (ICE) day at 114.78 (+0.46%), U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.35 (-0.07%). Gold futures stood at 1,736.70 (-0.22%), quotes copper at 369.20 (+1.29).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1260.06 (+1.71%).
In the foreign exchange market has been a slight consolidation pending the outcome of the Fed meeting. One can assume that if the meeting will be given a clear signal to the launch of new incentives, this could have a lot of pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.29 (+0.07%).
 
Prediction of the day:
It looks like the market in anticipation of the Fed's meeting will continue to consolidate in a narrow range.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
23.00 U.S. Consumer Lending July n / a; 9,1 billion dollars, 6.5 billion
 
Sergei Kostenko

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

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Optimism is reduced amid the current problems ...
 
The Optimism of the late last week is beginning to decline amid regular news from the eurozone. Greece again can not agree with the troika of creditors and those with the "slamming the door" left the land of ancient Greece. At ...
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Optimism is reduced amid the current problems ...
 
The Optimism of the late last week is beginning to decline amid regular news from the eurozone. Greece again can not agree with the troika of creditors and those with the "slamming the door" left the land of ancient Greece. At the same time, some German politicians, led by the Bundesbank continue to "stir up trouble", not wanting to know that Germany will not be able to hide, and if it begins to strongly support a weakening euro-zone countries, the crisis will finally destroy it.
In essence, it appears that the Germans have two options. First take on the burden of pulling out of the euro zone debt crisis, and the second to leave the eurozone. But even if Germany will leave the euro zone, it will not be getting better. In this connection I would like to ask a question, and that will make the German export-oriented companies to whom they will sell their products? Surely in the poverty-stricken Europe, affected the protracted crisis in the poor or China, where even the local authorities have failed to trigger the growth of domestic consumption.
No. The Germans had no choice but to save Europe. Needed immediate Euro integration and responding to all reporting. And as long as markets live hopes for a new batch of the drug called unlimited liquidity, which temporarily raise the markets, and then gives the new failure. Therefore, the single currency is still has a chance to grow up, but it will not be significant, since the growth of the money supply immediately lead to a weakening in the future of the single currency.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence from September n / a; -30,4; -30,3

23.00 U.S. Consumer Lending July n / a; 9,1 billion dollars, 6.5 billion

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The optimism of the last week starts to deflate
 
European stock market ended the week in a strong rally because of a negative statistics from the U.S. labor market, which showed worse-than-expected data on the number of new jobs in August. The number of jobs grew only ...
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The optimism of the last week starts to deflate
 
European stock market ended the week in a strong rally because of a negative statistics from the U.S. labor market, which showed worse-than-expected data on the number of new jobs in August. The number of jobs grew only to 96,000 against an expected growth of 121 000. Such a reaction of the market due to the fact that the negative data from the labor market will force the Fed's decision to resume new stimulus measures to support the economy.
 
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 107.30 (+2.81%). Shares of Deutsche Bank, UniCredit and Societe Generale soared from 4.39% to 6.83%.
 
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,794.80 (+0.30%); DAX 30 - 7,214.50 (+0.66%); CAC 40 - 3,519.05 (+0.26%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,536.00 (-0.12%). Trading in Europe opened with a slight decline of the major stock indexes.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Friday at 1,106.72 (+0.18%).
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.64% (-0.026 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.52% (+0.003 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.68% (-0.030 NCP), the 10-year Spanish Government Bonds 5.69 (+0.048 NCP), 10-year-old Italy Government Bonds 5.09 (+0.091 NCP).
 
Oil futures in London on the morning prior to the opening of the European trading session, moving in different directions on a background of weak data on the Chinese economy. Industrial production in China grew by 8.9% in August against its July value of 9.2%. These imports have also deteriorated, showing a decline of 2.6% y / y in August, against expectations of a 3.5% growth. This, of course, continues to point to the continued slowdown in the Chinese economy, which, of course, talks about the prospects of weak energy consumption.
 
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 114.40 (+0.13%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.27 (-0.16%).
 
Gold futures morning at 1,739.80 (-0.04%), quotes copper at 365.75 (+0.34%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 311.67 (+0.90%).
 
In the currency market correction with a little strengthening of the U.S. dollar after a much-weakened at the end of last week, against the decision of the ECB to conduct repurchase of debt securities of weak eurozone countries and frankly bad statistics from the U.S. labor market.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.26 (+0.03%).
 
Prediction of the day:
One can assume that after the strong growth in the euro against the dollar in the Forex market correction occurs. Investors continue to expect news from the eurozone. Another lack of agreement between the three lenders and Greece has a negative pressure on the euro. EURUSD pair may adjust the level of 1.2687.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence from September n / a; -30,4; -30,3
23.00 U.S. Consumer Lending July n / a; 9,1 billion dollars, 6.5 billion
Sergei Kostenko
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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